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View more earnings on MSFT<\/a> <\/p>\n Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<\/a>MSFT<\/a>) reports fiscal first-quarter earnings after the bell Wednesday, with the call at 5:30 p.m. ET. <\/p>\n Analysts expect earnings of about $4.72 per share on revenue near $90.7 billion, up roughly 17% from a year earlier. <\/p>\n On Kalshi<\/a>, traders are betting on which words CEO Satya Nadella and his team will say during the call. <\/p>\n The stock is up around 13% this year, but investors are increasingly focused on whether Microsoft’s enormous AI spending can deliver sufficient returns. <\/p>\n What Kalshi Predicts Microsoft Will Say <\/p>\n “OpenAI” leads the board at 96%. Microsoft has committed $13 billion to the ChatGPT maker and owns roughly a quarter of the company. OpenAI has also agreed to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure cloud services. <\/p>\n “GitHub” also trades at 96%. Microsoft’s software development platform offers an AI assistant called GitHub Copilot, which helps programmers write code. Nadella said Copilot had reached 50 million users in July. <\/p>\n “Maia” trades at 93%. Microsoft plans to expand production of its own AI chips, reducing its dependence on Nvidia. The company claims its next-generation chips could deliver 40% more AI processing per unit of electricity than competing GPU systems. <\/p>\n “Anthropic \/ Claude” sits at 90%. Microsoft agreed to invest up to $5 billion in the AI company, which committed to buying $30 billion in Azure computing capacity. Its Claude models are also available in Microsoft’s Copilot products. <\/p>\n “Frontier” trades at 89%. Nadella discussed “frontier models” from OpenAI and Anthropic on Microsoft’s last earnings call. The company also markets a $99-a-month “Frontier Suite” to businesses adopting AI tools. <\/p>\n “AMD” is at 70%, while “Cobalt” trades at 60%. Microsoft’s partnership with Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<\/a>AMD<\/a>) helps diversify its AI chip supply beyond Nvidia, while its Arm-based Cobalt processors reduce reliance on conventional server CPUs. <\/p>\n “Memory” trades at 62%. JPMorgan expects memory chip shortages to persist through 2028, potentially raising the cost of Microsoft’s massive AI data center expansion. <\/p>\n What Kalshi Predicts Microsoft Will Skip <\/p>\n “Sovereign Cloud” trades at 50%. Microsoft announced<\/a> an expansion of the service last week, giving governments and businesses greater control over where sensitive data is stored and who can access it. <\/p>\n “Cybersecurity” trades at just 30%, despite Microsoft’s growing investment in AI-powered security tools. Its latest Digital Defense Report found that government agencies were the most targeted sector, accounting for 27% of observed cyber threat activity in 2026. <\/p>\n “Gaming” trades at 41%, despite Xbox remaining a major consumer business for Microsoft. Its gaming content and services revenue fell 10% last quarter. <\/p>\n Reading the Board <\/p>\n Microsoft could beat Wall Street’s earnings estimates and still disappoint investors if Azure falls short. <\/p>\n Microsoft guided to 44% to 45% Azure growth in constant currency, but Morgan Stanley says investors are looking for around 47%. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha expect an even higher 47.7%, according to Reuters. <\/p>\n With Microsoft planning to spend more than $50 billion on infrastructure this quarter, Nadella will need Azure to clear that higher bar to show the AI spending is paying off. <\/p>\n Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement. <\/p>\n Image: Shutterstock <\/p>\n Read Also:Paul Kedrosky Says AI Bubble May Be Hiding in Private Markets as Anthropic IPO Nears<\/a> <\/p>\n This article Microsoft Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Satya Nadella Say?<\/a> originally appeared on Benzinga.com<\/a> <\/p>\n \u00a9 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. 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