With the New Jersey Devils, two big ifs tend to define their game: whether they can finish their chances and get timely saves. Put the two together, and it can create problems for a team with a lot of potential, no matter how much the process seems to be clicking below the surface.<\/p>\n
That lack of finish was especially glaring to open the season, when the Devils\u2019 shot quality added up to 3.86 expected goals per 60, and the team only converted on 2.63 of them.<\/p>\n
The problem with expected goals is that it measures against what the average shooting player or team would score, and at this point, the Devils have proven that their finishing talent is generally below that. That\u2019s why it\u2019s so important that New Jersey overwhelms its opponents with as many shots and chances as possible to improve its chances of scoring consistently.<\/p>\n
That is exactly what the Devils did to open the season, and that\u2019s why that low scoring rate seemed unsustainable \u2014 even for a team with their shooting woes.<\/p>\n
By their sixth game of the season, that scoring luck finally started to turn around with a 5-4 overtime win against the Red Wings. Since then, the team has scored at a clip of 4.17 goals per 60.<\/p>\n
Nico Hischier has picked up the pace. Arseny Gritsyuk is helping unlock a top line that created so many chances with little to show for it. Luke Hughes has been jumping up more offensively, too. Even Jack Hughes finally broke through with his first five-on-five goal of the season on Tuesday night, after piling up scoring chances night after night.<\/p>\n
All four lines have a puck carrier who can gain the zone with possession. The defense has been a lot more active, helping New Jersey play to its rush-based strengths after straying from that over the last couple of seasons. While the team isn\u2019t converting on some of its initial rush chances and needs to improve that, the Devils are at least turning those rushes into longer cycles to create waves of scoring chances and wear down opponents in the zone.<\/p>\n
So if the Devils can find a way to build on that momentum and keep building up more scoring layers to make up for some of their finish, that could complete the puzzle and solidify this team in the contender\u2019s circle \u2014 now that management has finally found someone to give this team reliable saves in Connor Hellebuyck, who is such a strong stylistic fit<\/a> for New Jersey.<\/p>\n The losers of the Hellebuyck trade<\/p>\n There are always winners and losers of a trade; sometimes, it\u2019s the teams that missed out.<\/p>\n While Hellebuyck could have put the Hurricanes over the edge, they already had proof of concept that it can win without elite goaltending.\u00a0Utah and Buffalo, on the other hand, don\u2019t.<\/p>\n In some ways, Utah missing out on Hellebuyck is less glaring because the rest of the team is playing so well. The young stars are thriving, Barrett Hayton\u2019s growth has strengthened the third line, the power play has been dynamic, the Mikhail Sergachev pair has solidified its game, and John Marino continues to be a source of consistency on the back end.<\/p>\n But goaltending has been the weak link. While Karel Vejmelka\u2019s volume starts make him reliable from an availability sense, he hasn\u2019t played well enough this season, allowing 5.92 goals above expected in 11 appearances. Sebastian Cossa hasn\u2019t locked it down in his starts, either. If neither one turns it around, it could become a problem for a team in a top-heavy Central Division that is starting to look contender-worthy in front of the blue paint.<\/p>\n The Sabres are a step behind in the contender\u2019s cycle at this point. After making some offseason moves with the long-term future in mind, it gives them a little more leeway because adding Hellebuyck (and Hellebuyck alone) may not have been enough to put them over the top. Not when Buffalo is struggling so much to score, both at even strength and on the power play. It\u2019s a reminder that development isn\u2019t a straight line for an up-and-coming team, and maybe even a reality check on its trajectory after last year\u2019s excitement. But it still leaves the Sabres with major question marks in net that Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen hasn\u2019t been able to answer.<\/p>\n Rantanen\u2019s five-on-five rebound<\/p>\n Most superstars tend to do a lot of damage on the power play. It\u2019s only natural when they play upwards of 70 percent of the team\u2019s minutes on the man-advantage. In Mikko Rantanen\u2019s case, that deployment was 85 percent last season because he was so successful, and up to 93 percent to start this year, leading all skaters.<\/p>\n But there is a fine line between racking up power-play points and being too reliant on it to score, and Rantanen walked that last season, when a career-high 44 percent of his scoring came on the advantage. It probably wouldn\u2019t have been a focal point had he produced more in his five-on-five minutes; instead, Dallas only controlled play by a small margin with a 52 percent xG rate in his minutes, and scored 2.91 goals per 60. That was a team-wide weak point through much of the regular season, which eventually contributed to its disappointing Round 1 exit.<\/p>\n This season, Rantanen\u2019s picking up the pace at five-on-five, just in a different way from most seasons past. The winger has always been a unique threat between his size and strength, shot-making ability, and playmaking. Alongside Nathan MacKinnon, another dominant all-around threat, he showed off different sides of that a little more.<\/p>\n Since joining the Stars, he has shot the puck less at five-on-five. But that may be because he\u2019s skating with more of a shoot-first player in Wyatt Johnston. It seems like he has refined his game to complement that more.<\/p>\n Rantanen is carrying the puck out of his own end more often and efficiently this season. He is springing his teammates with passes off the rush to get into the offensive zone. There, the puck moving doesn\u2019t stop. Rantanen is strong and crafty, so he can protect the puck to hold possession and find different ways to create space. He sees the ice well and creates lanes and openings for his teammates. And if Dallas doesn\u2019t score that first wave, he retrieves pucks to extend the cycle, which can add up to a shift like this against his former team.<\/p>\n Mikko Rantanen sets up Miro Heiskanen<\/p>\n Rantanen\u2019s much-improved play-driving adds up to a sparkling 62.5 percent xG rate, with the team scoring 3.97 goals per 60 in his five-on-five minutes.<\/p>\n Schaefer is a breakout machine<\/p>\n Matthew Schaefer quickly showed last year, in a phenomenal and unprecedented season for an 18-year-old defenseman, how game-changing his skating ability is.<\/p>\n That kind of skill would have stood out anywhere, but it was especially glaring on the Islanders \u2014 a team that both by design and due to roster restraints didn\u2019t have the most effective breakouts. Pre-Schaefer, the Islanders\u2019 defensemen weren\u2019t successfully carrying the puck out of their own zone and stringing together strong rush sequences. Instead, most of their defenders just chipped and dumped the puck up the ice. And as much as that stylistically clicked with their forward group, it clearly wasn\u2019t a recipe for success.<\/p>\n Enter Schaefer, a breakout machine, who has overhauled how the Islanders play in his minutes.<\/p>\n Schaefer quickly emerged as one of the best puck-carriers in the game last season among defensemen. He finished second to Quinn Hughes in carry-outs at five-on-five, at a rate of 14.3 per 60. But to open this season, he has already hit another level \u2014 18.5 carry-outs per 60 to lead all defensemen.<\/p>\n Matthew Schaefer in transition versus Toronto<\/p>\n An uptick in speed is contributing to that, since he is bursting up the ice at 20-plus miles per hour at an even higher rate to open this season. That pace is something to keep track of, if the fatigue factor builds up, considering how much the Islanders lean on him. But his training and overall physical maturation could offset that; it also should add more strength to his game to make it even tougher to get the puck off his stick if opponents can keep pace.<\/p>\n But it\u2019s more than just the speed. It\u2019s the shiftiness that makes him tougher to contain. Take this play against the Lightning; he\u2019s able to poke the puck past two players and sneak past them to get the jump on this rush up the ice.<\/p>\n Matthew Schaefer exit versus the Lightning<\/p>\n Then there is his vision to consider. Defenders will try to shade toward him because this transition game is such a known strength. The problem is, opponents can get caught puck-watching, as the Rangers do here, and not see openings such as Casey Cizikas on the left.<\/p>\n Matthew Schaefer rush versus the Rangers<\/p>\n Leonard is leveling up<\/p>\n It\u2019s a transition year in Washington, as the team figures out what a post-Alex Ovechkin offense looks like. At this rate, that by-committee approach has to come together sooner rather than later, considering his slow start.<\/a><\/p>\n The team took a two-pronged approach over the summer to address that with big offseason adds and bets on internal growth. Ryan Leonard is helping drive the latter.<\/p>\n The Capitals clearly were counting on that, as evidenced by his eight-year extension worth $10.5 million a year signed in September. The signing had a lot of projection, but Leonard showed the potential to live up to the hype thanks to some promising flashes as a rookie and his draft pedigree.<\/p>\n So far, those flashes are translating a lot more consistently this season \u2014 especially in transition, which was an area the Capitals seriously needed to punch up.<\/p>\n Whether Leonard is deployed with Dylan Strome in the top six or Justin Sourdif in the bottom six, he has generally played with a puck-retrieving center. From there, he either gets himself open for an outlet pass to rush up the ice, or just carries the puck himself.<\/p>\n Then, he helps get the Caps to work in the offensive zone. Heading into Wednesday night\u2019s matchup against the Flyers, Leonard\u2019s carry-in rate of 19.4 per 60 ranked fourth in the league among forwards, behind only Nathan MacKinnon, Beckett Sennecke and Connor McDavid. And he\u2019s turning those entries into scoring chances at a high clip, too.<\/p>\n In some shifts, Leonard is driving right up the ice to create his own chances.<\/p>\n Ryan Leonard rush against New Jersey<\/p>\n He is also recognizing when to hold onto the puck, or slow down to create more time and space in the offensive zone. That contributed to Jordan Kyrou\u2019s first-period goal against the Kings earlier this month. And in the clip below, that patience and puck-moving created more traffic on his goal against the Kings.<\/p>\n Ryan Leonard scores against the Kings<\/p>\n The Blackhawks\u2019 defensive woes<\/p>\n Head coach Jeff Blashill did have a point about internal data versus what is available publicly. While there is some fantastic work being done in the public sphere, private models do have more details and factors. As detailed in this conversation<\/a> between Mark Lazerus and Dom Luszcyszyn earlier this season, that includes pre-shot movement and historic precedent, among other factors. Teams then take that private data and build numerous models off of it to take things to the next level.<\/p>\n But that battle here doesn\u2019t exactly solve anything for the Blackhawks. Because even the most detailed data in the world won\u2019t spit out that this is a good team in their own zone. Instead, it just helps us break down what is going wrong and holding this team back.<\/p>\n It\u2019s difficult for a young team to gain traction and find confidence when it spends so little time in the offensive zone. Chicago\u2019s a bottom-five team in offensive zone time this season because of the mistakes and shortcomings in the other two zones.<\/p>\n The Blackhawks, to their credit, actually deny entry relatively well compared to the rest of the league. But when opponents make their way into the zone, that\u2019s when Chicago is in danger for two primary reasons: poor decision-making with the puck and a tough time getting back in control.<\/p>\n This young team turns the puck over too often, and struggles to retrieve loose pucks or win battles to gain possession. And even when the Blackhawks do get the puck back, exiting the zone is another challenge entirely.<\/p>\n Stack those mistakes together, and it can lead to some costly sequences where the Blackhawks can\u2019t recover and either get hemmed in their own zone or get scored on.<\/p>\n Jake Evans scores on the Blackhawks<\/p>\n Pastrnak is back to his goal-scoring ways<\/p>\n David Pastrnak took a break from being one of the best goal scorers in the world last year.<\/p>\n It was the first time he fell below the 40-goal mark across a full season (excluding a condensed 2020-21) since the 2018-19 season, when he notched 38 goals. In five of those six 40-(plus) goal seasons, Pastrnak finished top-10 in goal scoring, peaking in second with a 61-goal performance in 2022-23.<\/p>\n So last year\u2019s 29-goal performance was a little uncharacteristic for one of the best shooters in the game. Instead, Pastrnak let his playmaking do more of the talking. His puck-moving ability has always been elite, but it usually doesn\u2019t take the spotlight when he consistently finds himself above the 40-goal mark.<\/p>\n Last season\u2019s career-high 71 assists, which were fueled by 57 primary helpers, were a reminder of how much dimension he has to his offensive attack. That helped balance his scoreline to make up for a slight downtick in shot volume, and the fact that his scoring was actually pretty on pace with expectations (when his elite finish tends to put him a little further ahead).<\/p>\n But this season, Pastrnak is back to his usual ways. With seven goals in 13 games, he is currently on pace for 45 goals across 84 games. The playmaking isn\u2019t slowing down despite his scoreline slanting right back toward goals, either. He is still one of the best at moving the puck to the slot, which both of his current linemates, JJ Peterka and Pavel Zacha, are benefiting from.<\/p>\n \u2014 Data via Sportlogiq, Evolving-Hockey<\/a>, HockeyViz<\/a>, HockeyStatCards<\/a>, All Three Zones<\/a>, and HockeyStats<\/a>.\u00a0This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer<\/a> on these numbers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"With the New Jersey Devils, two big ifs tend to define their game: whether they can finish their…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":899322,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[66],"tags":[4822,385,99],"class_list":["post-899321","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nhl","tag-new-jersey-devils","tag-nhl","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/899321","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=899321"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/899321\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/899322"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=899321"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=899321"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=899321"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}