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<\/p>\nPresident Donald Trump\u2019s nightmare scenario is taking shape.<\/p>\n
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Colin McPherson\/Corbis via Getty Images<\/p>\n
Democrats have received a significant vote of confidence from polling guru Nate Silver in their bid to flip a Senate seat in deep-red Kansas.<\/p>\n
The statistician has shifted his rating of the Kansas race from \u201ctossup\u201d to \u201cLean D\u201d on his Silver Bulletin<\/a> Substack, a striking turn for a race in a ruby-red state that once appeared poised to re-elect the Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. <\/p>\n It\u2019s been less than a month since Silver moved the race from \u201cLean R\u201d to \u201cTossup,\u201d underscoring just how quickly the political landscape has shifted for Marshall and his Democratic challenger, Adam Hamilton.<\/p>\n If polls are correct, Sen. Roger Marshall is shaping up to be the first Republican to lose a Kansas Senate race in nearly a century.<\/p>\n The latest shift appears to follow an Emerson College Polling survey<\/a> released Friday that put Hamilton four points ahead of Marshall, with 49 percent of voters supporting the Democrat, compared with 45 percent backing the Republican incumbent.<\/p>\n Silver\u2019s polling average now has Hamilton at 49 percent, up from 47.4 percent before the Emerson poll was released, while Marshall remains just below 46 percent.<\/p>\n The Emerson poll follows a CNN\/SSRS survey<\/a> released Thursday that also showed Hamilton leading by four points.<\/p>\n Get the Best of the BeastSign Up for The Swamp Newsletter<\/p>\n Kansas turning into a likely Democratic pickup is the clearest sign yet of how badly Republicans are faring. President Donald Trump won the state by 16 points in 2024, and no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race there since 1932.<\/p>\n Trump had been scheduled to appear at a Saturday rally for Marshall, but abruptly scrapped his in-person appearance in favor of a tele-rally. He then reversed course Friday, saying he now plans to campaign for the senator on Sunday in Salina.<\/p>\n Republicans across the country have been contending with a difficult political environment, much of it fueled by Trump\u2019s war and the resulting surge in prices. In Kansas, average gas prices have climbed by more than a dollar since the war began, while diesel has jumped by more than $2.50.<\/p>\n Hamilton, senior pastor of the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection, announced his run for U.S. Senate in April.<\/p>\n Marshall, however, has drawn particular criticism for the apparent lack of urgency about his re-election campaign.<\/p>\n \u201cI think Roger Marshall probably wins the award for running maybe the worst campaign, and he could have put this race away earlier,\u201d Cook Political Report\u2019s Jessica Taylor said Friday on Inside Politics with Dana Bash. <\/p>\n \u201cI know that the NRSC told their incumbents, \u2018You need to be ready. This is a tough cycle,\u2019\u201d she said. \u201cAnd he was one who did not apparently heed that.\u201d<\/p>\n Unlock a year of full access to The Daily Beast for $35.<\/p>\n What’s IncludedUnlimited access (web + app)Exclusive ad-free newslettersCommenting accessDaily crosswordSneak peek of launches & events<\/p>\n Auto-renews at $5.99 monthly. Cancel anytime<\/p>\n What’s IncludedDiscounted annual rate – Save 47%Unlimited access (web + app)Exclusive ad-free newslettersCommenting accessDaily crosswordSneak peek of launches & events<\/p>\n Auto-renews at $59.99 yearly. Cancel anytime<\/p>\n Best Value<\/p>\n What’s IncludedDiscounted annual rateFull access to the Daily Beast Substack ($60 value)*Premium ad-free readingUnlimited access (web + app)Exclusive ad-free newslettersCommenting accessDaily crosswordSneak peek of launches & events<\/p>\n Auto-renews at $119.99 yearly. Cancel anytime<\/p>\n *Substack access provided by the next business day, using your subscription email. Choosing the Premium plan constitutes your permission to share your subscription email with Substack and your agreement to Substack\u2019s Privacy Policy<\/a>.<\/p>\n Looks like you already have a subscription!<\/p>\n You’re all set!<\/p>\n Thanks for subscribing.<\/p>\n Back to plans<\/p>\n Subscription$0.00<\/p>\n Total$0.00<\/p>\n Continue with GoogleContinue with FacebookLoading subscription options Register below to read this article for free\u00a0 or subscribe SubscribeRegister<\/p>\n What’s IncludedUnlimited access (web + app)Exclusive ad-free newslettersCommenting accessDaily crosswordSneak peek of launches & events<\/p>\n Auto-renews at $5.99 monthly. Cancel anytime<\/p>\n What’s IncludedDiscounted annual rate – Save 47%Unlimited access (web + app)Exclusive ad-free newslettersCommenting accessDaily crosswordSneak peek of launches & events<\/p>\n Auto-renews at $59.99 yearly. Cancel anytime<\/p>\n Best Value<\/p>\n What’s IncludedDiscounted annual rateFull access to the Daily Beast Substack ($60 value)*Premium ad-free readingUnlimited access (web + app)Exclusive ad-free newslettersCommenting accessDaily crosswordSneak peek of launches & events<\/p>\n Auto-renews at $119.99 yearly. Cancel anytime<\/p>\n *Substack access provided by the next business day, using your subscription email. Choosing the Premium plan constitutes your permission to share your subscription email with Substack and your agreement to Substack\u2019s Privacy Policy<\/a>.<\/p>\n![\"Roger](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/D2IXPDDD5NBTTP34QWPIZTXIGM.JPG\")
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