{"id":903375,"date":"2026-11-02T16:04:13","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T16:04:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/903375\/"},"modified":"2026-11-02T16:04:13","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T16:04:13","slug":"built-to-win-by-neil-paine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/903375\/","title":{"rendered":"Built to win – by Neil Paine"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Subscribe to Scoreboard by clicking here<\/a>! Read the archive here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Happy Monday! And congratulations to the WNBA\u2019s newest champion \u2014 as, apparently, expansion teams are supposed to be good immediately now. The Golden State Valkyries beat Atlanta in Saturday\u2019s Game 7 to finish one of the fastest title build-ups in modern pro sports history. We\u2019ll look at just how unusual that rise was below, and whether Golden State had some secret sauce to help them get there. Plus, Kimi Antonelli became the youngest F1 champion ever<\/a>, the NFL\u2019s last unbeaten \u2014 Minnesota \u2014 finally fell, and the Buccaneers somehow won a football game without completing a single pass. (Yes, you read that right.) Here\u2019s what we\u2019re watching today:<\/p>\n

The Main Events<\/p>\n

All listed times are Eastern. \ud83d\udea8= Elimination game<\/p>\n

WNBA:
\ud83c\udfc0\ud83c\udfc6 WNBA Finals: Valkyries win! \ud83c\udf89<\/p>\n

Football:
\ud83c\udfc8 Monday Night Football: Bears (38%) at Seahawks (62%)<\/a> – 8:15 p.m. (ESPN\/ABC)
\ud83c\udfc8\ud83c\udfc6 Super Bowl check-in: 49ers 18% to win the NFL title
<\/a>\ud83c\udfc8\ud83c\udfc6 College Football Playoff check-in: Georgia 23% to win the national title<\/a><\/p>\n

NBA:
\ud83c\udfc0 Thunder (39%) at Cavaliers (61%)<\/a> – 7 p.m. (NBCSN)
\ud83c\udfc0 Pelicans (35%) at Grizzlies (65%)<\/a> – 8 p.m.
\ud83c\udfc0 Celtics (36%) at Rockets (64%)<\/a> – 8:30 p.m.
\ud83c\udfc0\ud83c\udfc6 NBA title check-in: Spurs 24% to win<\/a><\/p>\n

NHL:
\ud83c\udfd2 Golden Knights (51%) at Bruins (49%)<\/a> <\/a>– 7 p.m. (NHLN)
\ud83c\udfd2 Red Wings (38%) at Panthers (62%)<\/a> – 7 p.m.
\ud83c\udfd2 Avalanche (69%) at Blackhawks (31%)<\/a> – 8 p.m.
\ud83c\udfd2\ud83c\udfc6 Stanley Cup check-in: Hurricanes\/Avalanche 11% to win<\/a><\/p>\n

Soccer:
\u26bd Premier League: Newcastle United (44%) at Everton (28%)<\/a> – 3 p.m.
\u26bd\ud83c\udfc6 Champions League check-in: Paris Saint-Germain 21% to win<\/a>
<\/a>\u26bd\ud83c\udfc6 Premier League title check-in: Arsenal FC 74% to win<\/a>
<\/a>\u26bd\ud83c\udfc6 Europa League check-in: SL Benfica 23% to win<\/a>
<\/a>\u26bd\ud83c\udfc6 MLS title check-in: Nashville SC 20% to win MLS Cup<\/a>
<\/a>\u26bd\ud83c\udfc6 NWSL title check-in: San Diego Wave FC 23% to win<\/a><\/p>\n

Expansion speedrun \ud83c\udfc6<\/p>\n

As mentioned above, the Golden State Valkyries captured the 2026 WNBA title<\/a> over the weekend, coming back from down 37-28 against the Atlanta Dream shortly after halftime to close Game 7 on a victorious 40-26 run. Series MVP Gabby Williams had just 2 points at halftime, but she exploded<\/a> for 28 (!) in the second half to key Golden State\u2019s surge.<\/p>\n

The big story, of course, is that the Valkyries didn\u2019t even have a WNBA roster<\/a> as recently as 23 months ago \u2014 they joined the league as its 13th team<\/a>, and first expansion club in 17 years<\/a>, starting last season. Now, at the end of their second season of existence, they have speedrun their way to a championship.<\/p>\n

How rare is that? Out of the \u201cBig Four\u201d men\u2019s pro leagues (MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL) plus the WNBA, no team who began play since 1960 has ever taken so few years to secure their first championship in franchise history:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The only comparable cases from outside those leagues come from Major League Soccer, where the Chicago Fire won the 1998 MLS Cup<\/a> in their first season of existence, and Atlanta United FC won in Year 2 in 2018<\/a>. But otherwise, it\u2019s traditionally been next to impossible to build a contender this quickly in a major pro sports league.<\/p>\n

And in fact, that has usually been by design. Leagues are happy to collect expansion fees \u2014 Golden State ownership paid a whopping $50 million to join the W<\/a> back in 2023 \u2014 but established owners don\u2019t exactly want to spread wins around to newcomers if they can help it. That means teams have to be built through expansion drafts, where new teams have to rummage around through the bargain-bin of talent left behind<\/a> after existing teams have protected all or most of the players they want to keep.<\/p>\n

Without access to any good players, for the most part, it tends to take a long time for expansion clubs to even reach a league-average level. To wit: The median modern-era Big Four + WNBA expansion team was only a bit better than the 30th percentile of the league by its fifth season of play, according to the Elo ratings<\/a>. Even successful examples of new franchises will be around the 75th percentile by their third or fourth season, after usually experiencing big leaps between Years 2 and 3:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Golden State, though, jumped from the 42nd percentile in Elo last year to the 97th this year, the best any recent expansion team has ever been this quickly into its existence.<\/p>\n

Some of this involved finding good talent in the expansion draft \u2014 Veronica Burton, for instance, was left available (by the Connecticut Sun) in the draft, as were Cecilia Zandalasini and Kayla Thornton. The Valkyries then further built out their roster by adding Williams, plus other veterans like Kiah Stokes, Kaila Charles and Tiffany Hayes. Shrewd player acquisitions by general manager Ohemaa Nyanin and excellent leadership by head coach Natalie Nakase helped bring it all together for a championship.<\/p>\n

But if this year\u2019s two expansion squads<\/a>, the Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire \u2014 to say nothing of future newcomers in Cleveland, Detroit and Philly<\/a> \u2014 are hoping for the same second-year success as Golden State, that might be setting expectations a bit unrealistically. Not only were Toronto and Portland nowhere near as good in their debuts as Golden State last year, but the Valkyries probably benefitted greatly from the nearly two-decade backlog of talent during the WNBA\u2019s long interregnum between expansions.<\/p>\n

Each successive new franchise gets less and less of that advantage, since the talent pool is drained with every additional team. So it could be that the Valkyries came along at exactly the right moment to win this early \u2014 not only by making all the right moves, but by having a once-in-a-generation opportunity for first dibs on available talent to build a winner overnight, before the rest of the league\u2019s newcomers could follow in their footsteps.<\/p>\n

You shall not (complete a) pass!<\/p>\n

Unlike those snowflakes over in baseball, football will famously play through just about any weather \u2014 neither rain, nor snow, nor sleet, nor hail shall keep the NFL from its appointed rounds. But after watching Sunday\u2019s slopfest between the Buccaneers and Falcons<\/a>, maybe they ought to rethink that whole approach. Atlanta QB Michael Penix Jr. completed nearly as many passes to Bucs defenders (4) as he did to actual Falcons teammates (8), while Tampa Bay essentially decided to give up on the aerial game entirely. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield completed zero passes<\/a> (on 3 attempts), letting rushers Bucky Irving (170 yards) and Kenneth Gainwell (140) do the work instead. And it worked! Tampa Bay won 16-0, becoming the first team to win an NFL game without completing a single pass since the OJ Simpson-led (\ud83d\ude2c) Buffalo Bills on September 29, 1974<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

What else we\u2019re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today\u2019s odds.<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udf0d \u201cThe Week in International Sport: 3×3 basketball, South Africa in test cricket and Caroline Harvey\u201d<\/a> by Ben Wylie
\ud83c\udfc8 \u201cIt\u2019s Over for the Eagles\u201d<\/a> by Jeremy Keys
\ud83c\udfc0 \u201cWhen Does an NBA Record Start to Mean Something?\u201d<\/a> by Shax
\ud83c\udfc0 \u201cFour big thoughts as we enter the WNBA offseason\u201d<\/a> by Katie McInerney
\ud83c\udfc8 \u201cThe Quarterback Evaluation Project\u201d<\/a> by Robbie Marriage<\/p>\n

Next on deck\u2026<\/p>\n

Tuesday (11\/3)
\ud83c\udfc8 CFB: Buffalo at Miami (OH)
\ud83c\udfc0 NBA: No games. (Election Day) \ud83d\uddf3\ufe0f
\ud83c\udfd2 NHL: Oilers at Devils
\u26bd Champions League: Atl\u00e9tico Madrid vs. Bayern Munich<\/p>\n

Wednesday (11\/4)
\ud83c\udfc8 CFB: Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan
\ud83c\udfc0 NBA: Timberwolves at Rockets
\ud83c\udfd2 NHL: Blackhawks at Panthers
\u26bd Champions League: RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City<\/p>\n

Thursday (11\/5)
\ud83c\udfc8 Thursday Night Football: Jaguars at Ravens
\ud83c\udfc8 CFB: JMU at Southern Miss
\ud83c\udfc0 NBA: Heat at Warriors
\ud83c\udfd2 NHL: Bruins at Penguins
\u26bd Europa League: Marseille at Bayer Leverkusen<\/p>\n

\ud83e\udde0 Looking ahead<\/p>\n

Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We\u2019ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.<\/p>\n

Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!<\/p>\n

All data current as of time of send.<\/p>\n

\u2014 by Neil Paine<\/p>\n

*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC \u2014 probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Subscribe to Scoreboard by clicking here! Read the archive here. Happy Monday! And congratulations to the WNBA\u2019s newest…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":903376,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[99,434],"class_list":["post-903375","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-wnba","tag-sports","tag-wnba"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/903375","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=903375"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/903375\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/903376"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=903375"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=903375"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=903375"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}