NFC contenders have declared themselves all-in for the current NFL season.<\/p>\n
The Chicago Bears traded two first-round picks to Tennessee for Jeffery Simmons, arguably the best defensive tackle in the league.<\/p>\n
The Seattle Seahawks sent two picks to Indianapolis for Quenton Nelson, arguably the league\u2019s top guard.<\/p>\n
The San Francisco 49ers brought back defensive lineman DeForest Buckner, also in a trade with the Colts.<\/p>\n
Before the season, it was the Los Angeles Rams pushing their chips to the middle of the table with blockbuster deals for Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie.<\/p>\n
In the AFC, meanwhile, it\u2019s been crickets among contenders on the trade front through the season\u2019s first eight Sundays. Surely that must change before the Nov. 10 trade deadline<\/a>.<\/p>\n The Pick Six column weighs the pressure the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills should feel as their NFC counterparts load up, plus more on the trade front. The full menu:<\/p>\n \u2022 AFC contenders lag behind Broncos erase 11-point fourth-quarter deficit to defeat Chiefs<\/p>\n 1. NFC contenders are raising the stakes for Mahomes and Allen, whose teams have weaknesses they can still address.<\/p>\n The AFC is where most of the best quarterbacks reside. Having Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow or the now-injured Lamar Jackson<\/a> behind center raises a franchise\u2019s floor sufficiently to quell a team\u2019s desperation.<\/p>\n Those players also come with massive long-term contracts that teams plan around from both cap and cash standpoints.<\/p>\n Those are surely factors in why AFC contenders operate the way they do. But where there\u2019s a will, there\u2019s definitely a way in the NFL.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Rams always seem to find a way,\u201d an exec from an NFC team said. \u201cSan Francisco is kind of a well-oiled machine when it comes to just flipping the salary cap. Seattle is always active.\u201d<\/p>\n I\u2019m exempting from this exercise Denver and New England, which both already traded first-round picks for receivers and need to let those transactions play out; Cincinnati, which sent the 10th pick in the 2026 draft to the Giants for Dexter Lawrence (the Bengals rank 16th in defensive expected points added per play, up from 29th last season); Pittsburgh, which seems to be on a growth trajectory<\/a>; and Jacksonville, which leads the NFL in point differential (+85).<\/p>\n \u2022 Chiefs need to finally land a receiver for Mahomes<\/p>\n Marvin Harrison to Reggie Wayne.<\/p>\n Marques Colston to Michael Thomas.<\/p>\n Hines Ward to Antonio Brown.<\/p>\n Wes Welker to Julian Edelman.<\/p>\n Vincent Jackson to Keenan Allen.<\/p>\n Jordy Nelson to Davante Adams.<\/p>\n How long before the Chiefs catch on?<\/p>\n Their in-season trade acquisitions during the Mahomes era \u2014 Josh Uche, DeAndre Hopkins, Mecole Hardman, Kadarius Toney and Melvin Ingram \u2014 made a couple of timely contributions without becoming anything a general manager would brag about on his resume.<\/p>\n Three of those five acquisitions were wide receivers, which is instructive for a franchise still looking to finish this sentence: Tyreek Hill to whom?<\/p>\n The Colts\u2019 Josh Downs might be most available, with youth on his side. The Jaguars\u2019 Brian Thomas Jr. would be the more ambitious acquisition, but why would Jacksonville help the Chiefs? Asking the Browns about Jerry Jeudy could make sense (Kansas City\u2019s receivers coach Chad O\u2019Shea coached Jeudy in Cleveland from 2024 to \u201925).<\/p>\n Mahomes passed for 321 yards with three touchdowns in the Chiefs\u2019 28-24 defeat<\/a> at Denver, so if you think Kansas City should focus on adding to its pass rush at the trade deadline, you\u2019ll get no argument here. But the receiver issues demand our attention (on Sunday, no Chiefs wideout gained more than 12 yards on a catch, leaving the heavy lifting for Travis Kelce, who is nearing retirement, and running back Emmett Johnson).<\/p>\n Think of the other great quarterbacks this century.<\/p>\n Tom Brady\u2019s Patriots, Peyton Manning\u2019s Colts, Drew Brees\u2019 Saints, Aaron Rodgers\u2019 Packers, Philip Rivers\u2019 Chargers and Ben Roethlisberger\u2019s Steelers all transitioned smoothly from one top wideout to the next. As the table below shows, those other QBs got, on average, 5.3 seasons with at least 800 yards from one receiver, and 5.7 from the next.<\/p>\n Mahomes got three such seasons from Hill, who left the team five years ago. He has gotten two total since: one in 2022 from JuJu Smith-Schuster, and one in 2023 from Rashee Rice, who returned from his latest absence Sunday.<\/p>\n Some of these QBs also had elite tight ends: Jimmy Graham for Brees, Antonio Gates for Rivers and Rob Gronkowski for Brady.<\/p>\n Mahomes has Kelce, but he won’t for much longer.<\/p>\n The Chiefs won two Super Bowls without Hill, but the offense has slipped since, despite getting a big boost from Kenneth Walker III at running back. So, how long can they keep waiting on Rice and Xavier Worthy to deliver consistently?<\/p>\n In another life, it took three consecutive losses in the NFC title game for then-Eagles coach Andy Reid to trade for Terrell Owens. That move helped get Philly to the Super Bowl the next season.<\/p>\n Reid is a three-time Super Bowl winner now with the Chiefs and bound for the Hall of Fame. He hasn’t needed to make a big in-season move to get over the top in Kansas City. He might need one to get back, and especially to win another ring.<\/p>\n \u2022 Bills need help at linebacker or in the secondary to finally reach the Super Bowl<\/p>\n A Bills defense that ranked 32nd in EPA per play entering Sunday \u2014 -0.16, the worst by a team with at least five wins through six games this century \u2014 jumped to 30th after a 36-10 victory<\/a> over the Ravens, but there’s a giant asterisk: Baltimore lost Lamar Jackson<\/a> on its first offensive play (and backup Tyler Huntley in the second quarter).<\/p>\n Upcoming games against the Vikings, Jets and Dolphins could push Buffalo higher in those defensive rankings. That could lead the Bills to believe the defense is coming together under first-year coordinator Jim Leonhard, but those aren’t the teams Buffalo will need to beat deep in the playoffs, let alone if it faces one of those NFC powers in the Super Bowl.<\/p>\n The Bills are finally getting solid production from their front with Deone Walker and Greg Rousseau leading the way. They need help in the back seven, especially the secondary.<\/p>\n Landing safety Budda Baker from the Cardinals would be the ambitious play. Would the Titans, having already unloaded Simmons, part with safety Amani Hooker? Hooker picked off Burrow three times in the Titans’ near-upset of the Bengals (a plea before the trade deadline?).<\/p>\n At linebacker, would the Panthers part with Bobby Okereke after firing defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero and promoting Todd Wash in an interim role? The Bills’ inside linebackers coach, John Egorugwu, coached Okereke with the Giants, so the fit could be good.<\/p>\n This moment has been approaching for a while in Buffalo.<\/p>\n As the chart above shows, the Bills are long past the days when their defense could carry them with consistency. The team’s cumulative EPA on offense and defense during the Josh Allen era might have intersected for the first time Sunday if Jackson hadn’t been injured.<\/p>\n The Bills’ defense ranked second in EPA per play from 2018 to ’23 and 14th from 2024 to ’25 before dropping to 30th this season.<\/p>\n GM Brandon Beane added cornerback Rasul Douglas from Green Bay on Halloween in 2023, a solid acquisition. The team’s other in-season additions during the Allen era \u2014 Amari Cooper in 2024, Nyheim Hines and Dean Marlowe in 2022 \u2014 did not provide as much.<\/p>\n Top Plays from Ravens @ Bills<\/p>\n \u2022 Ravens need to find a quarterback, unless they’re willing to pack it in<\/p>\n So many deals flow from strong relationships between GMs and front offices. That can limit the realistic options.<\/p>\n Echoes from the Maxx Crosby trade fiasco<\/a> tell us the Raiders might not pick up the phone if Ravens GM Eric DeCosta called to inquire about Kirk Cousins, with Jackson headed to injured reserve and perhaps out for the season.<\/p>\n There’s little chance Cousins would do for the Ravens what he’s done for the Raiders regardless. He already knew Las Vegas’ offense and was comfortable with play caller Klint Kubiak from their time together in Minnesota. Now is not the time for Cousins to learn a new offense in a new town across the country.<\/p>\n What about Tyson Bagent? Ravens offensive coordinator Declan Doyle coached Bagent in Chicago. The Bears have the luxury of two backups they like behind Caleb Williams in Bagent and Case Keenum. Chicago needs to recoup draft capital after landing Simmons.<\/p>\n Baltimore already parted with picks for center Cam Jurgens, but desperate times call for desperate measures. The team could evaluate Bagent over the season’s second half while figuring out what comes next for Jackson, whose contract situation appears dicey.<\/p>\n 2. The Lions and Vikings do not look like Super Bowl teams. Is reaching the conference championship realistic? <\/p>\n No NFL offense aspires to resemble the 2006 Bears of Rex Grossman or the 2009 Jets of Mark Sanchez, but the Vikings of Kyler Murray should.<\/p>\n That’s not a slight as much as it’s a reality.<\/p>\n Grossman’s 2006 Bears and Sanchez’s 2009 Jets are among the 96 teams since divisional realignment in 2002 to reach a conference championship game. Those Bears rank 92nd, and those Jets are 95th among those 96 conference finalists in offensive EPA per play.<\/p>\n The 2010 Bears of Jay Cutler rank last on that list at -0.12 EPA per play \u2014 still something to shoot for in Minnesota (the Vikings are at -0.14).<\/p>\n A two-play sequence late in the first quarter highlighted the inconsistency that comes with having Murray behind center for the Vikings. On the first, Murray picked up 22 yards on a scramble. On the second, Murray bootlegged to his left and threw so inaccurately that two receivers in the area appeared unsure who had been targeted.<\/p>\n “Frustrating for the head coach,” a defensive assistant from another team said.<\/p>\n Frustrating for Justin Jefferson too, it seems. The star wide receiver declined to speak with reporters after posting 33 receiving yards in the loss, one more than his season low.<\/p>\n Sunday’s matchup with the NFC North-rival Lions \u2014 who are the Vikings’ opposite, with elite production on offense and abysmal production on defense \u2014 was telling.<\/p>\n If the Vikings couldn’t get much going against the Lions’ defense, how will they fare against the Bills’ 30th-ranked unit next week?<\/p>\n Can Minnesota’s defense keep up this pace over the next three weeks against Buffalo (first in offensive EPA per play), Green Bay (14th, but sixth since Week 5) and San Francisco (second)?<\/p>\n Detroit’s one-dimensional nature raises questions about its playoff durability as well.<\/p>\n None of those 96 conference finalists since realignment finished the regular season worse than -0.09 EPA per play on defense. The Lions are at -0.13.<\/p>\n Detroit’s best hope could be to emulate the 2006 Colts, whose defense transformed when safety Bob Sanders returned from injury and helped Peyton Manning to his first Super Bowl victory.<\/p>\n The Lions have been better (0.02) since Brian Branch made his season debut last week, and fellow safety Kerby Joseph is practicing in hopes of returning from a nagging knee injury. Neither has shown to be as transformative as Sanders, but having both would surely help.<\/p>\n The paramount concern, of course, is for linebacker Jack Campbell, who was hospitalized after suffering a neck injury Sunday<\/a>.<\/p>\n Lions hand Vikings first loss of season<\/p>\n 3. The Chargers’ decision to keep Mike McDaniel could be exposing Jim Harbaugh’s blind spot as a head coach.<\/p>\n At his best, Justin Herbert stands in the pocket, eyes downfield, and uses his strong arm to drive the ball vertically.<\/p>\n That version of Herbert joined Russell Wilson, Cam Newton and Matt Ryan as the only players since 2000 to finish each of their first five seasons averaging at least 0.03 EPA per pass play (minimum 10 starts in each season).<\/p>\n Herbert at his worst is what we’ve seen every week during an 0-7 start.<\/p>\n What that looked like during a 24-9 defeat<\/a> to the Rams on Sunday: Herbert under siege, avoiding the grasp of one Rams defender, Byron Young, only to get planted on his backside by another, Braden Fiske, while attempting a jump-pass toward the perimeter.<\/p>\n “The quarterback looks incredibly uncomfortable with everything they’re doing,” an offensive coach from another team said.<\/p>\n The Chargers rank 32nd in offensive EPA per play this season and 849th out of 862 offenses since 2000, one spot ahead of the tank-for-Tua (Tagovailoa) 2019 Dolphins, per TruMedia.<\/p>\n The decision to keep offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel through the bye could be exposing Jim Harbaugh’s limitations as a head coach. That is because Harbaugh, more than many other head coaches, focuses on bringing intensity, not on tweaking the scheme.<\/p>\n “He is worried about capturing an edge with the way you travel, having players over to his house, throwing and catching with his quarterbacks, all those things,” a former Harbaugh assistant once said. “He is as good as his staff is, and guess what? He believes in them. He is counting on you. He has empowered you. He is intense. He is going into battle with you. He is leading the way. That is why he goes after Vic Fangio to be his defensive coordinator.”<\/p>\n An exec from another team wondered whether Harbaugh or Chargers ownership led the way in landing McDaniel. Many other execs have questioned the fit from a personality standpoint.<\/p>\n The former assistant, speaking for a Pick Six column three years ago<\/a>, said Harbaugh typically brings little in the way of scheming. It’s not his thing. That’s good when things are going well, bad when the scheme needs fixing.<\/p>\n “Jim’s involvement in football is the equivalent of the absent-minded professor walking into the room and drawing up a trick play, taking a dip and walking out the door,” this assistant said. “He is not a football scheming person.”<\/p>\n The path forward for these Chargers seems clear:<\/p>\n \u2022 Get left tackle Rashawn Slater back from injury (he’s out until at least Week 10) so that Joe Alt, who returned Sunday, can move back to the right side<\/p>\n \u2022 Fortify the line by any means necessary in the offseason or even sooner \u2014 trading draft capital for veteran talent sounds irresponsible for an 0-7 team, but doing nothing while the franchise quarterback gets pummeled sounds worse (especially for this particular team, which carried a 9.5 preseason Vegas win total into the season and will try to contend in 2027)<\/p>\n \u2022 Change the offensive system so it’s set up for Herbert, not Tagovailoa, who sometimes thrived under McDaniel in Miami but fell apart last season as the Dolphins’ talent waned.<\/p>\n “Herbert is a big, long, long-release classic pocket passer who can scramble,” the coach said. “He is not one of these quick-feet, quick-release guys. He’s the opposite of Tua.”<\/p>\n 4. The Buccaneers did it! They won a game without completing a pass. Thank the weather and a defense that now ranks No. 1<\/p>\n The game clock kept ticking down. The Buccaneers kept handing off.<\/p>\n And why not? Tampa Bay led the Falcons 16-0 as heavy thunderstorms drenched Raymond James Stadium.<\/p>\n When the game ended, the Bucs had become the first team since the Lou Saban-coached 1974 Bills to win a game without completing a pass, and just the second since Harry and Bess Truman resided in the White House.<\/p>\n Two notable stats for the home team in Tampa on Sunday: at least an inch of rain, and -72 inches of net passing (reflecting a 2-yard sack).<\/p>\n Tampa Bay’s defense, which ranked third in EPA per play entering this game, jumped past Seattle and Minnesota into the top spot after this shutout victory, which included four interceptions off the Falcons’ Michael Penix Jr.<\/p>\n Top Plays from Falcons @ Buccaneers<\/p>\n Baker Mayfield completed none of his three attempts and still finished with a higher passer rating (39.6) than Penix (12.0).<\/p>\n Mayfield’s winning effort resembled Joe Ferguson’s 0-for-2 passing day in the Bills’ 16-12 victory over Joe Namath’s New York Jets on Sept. 29, 1974. The weather was so bad back then that Namath, who finished 2 of 18, said one pass “turned into one of the nicest sliders you ever did see” before the Bills intercepted it.<\/p>\n “You kept watching for the white caps to break in over Abbott Road,” the Buffalo News reported.<\/p>\n “This game matched one of the classic passers of all time, Joe Namath, against the current passing leader of the NFL, Joe Ferguson,” the Buffalo News wrote, “yet there was a strong possibility that the all-time record would be set for least passes completed in a game \u2014 none.”<\/p>\n That 1974 game’s first completed pass came with less than two minutes remaining.<\/p>\n Then, as now, running backs got much of the work. Tampa’s Bucky Irving (170 rushing yards) and Kenneth Gainwell (140) outgained Buffalo’s O.J. Simpson (117) and Jim Braxton (84) 310-201 for the winning teams.<\/p>\n
\u2022 Vikings lost a game! More to come
\u2022 Jim Harbaugh\u2019s blind spot exposed
\u2022 Bucs stare down 1974 Bills
\u2022 Jordan Love\u2019s remarkable season
\u2022 Two-minute drill: Officiating dials turned<\/p>\n