People, including on this staff, keep asking me with varying degrees of excitement or trepidation when the AI bubble will burst. I\u2019ll tell you what I tell them: If I knew that, I would make a life-changing bet on the market, levered up as far as I could, and then, after I made my money, go retire on a beach somewhere. Maybe run a cat sanctuary, who knows.<\/p>\n
What I can tell you is that I read with interest a story in Bloomberg this morning: \u201cWall Street CEOs, Big Money Managers Divided Over AI Risks<\/a>.\u201d The story itself is a roundup of stuff said at the 2026 Global Financial Leaders\u2019 Investment Summit in Hong Kong. Here\u2019s what caught my attention: The CEO of Pacific Investment Management Co. \u2014 that\u2019s PIMCO, the legendary bond firm \u2014 told listeners that there\u2019s going to be a downturn in the AI market \u201cand then things are going to break.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWhat we don\u2019t know is how pricing and economics will evolve.\u201d<\/p>\n The PIMCO CEO \u2014 his name is Emmanuel Roman, but his job is what matters here \u2014 has estimated that the AI buildout could create $2 trillion in financing needs over the next five years. The entire total US bond market is about $12 trillion.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not just PIMCO urging caution. Apollo Global Management, which lately had been talking with SpaceX about a $40 billion chip deal<\/a>, is also warning of AI risk. Apollo president Jim Zelter told analysts today that while he expects society will use \u201cdramatically more computing power in the future\u201d and that AI is improving quickly, there is still significant uncertainty. \u201cWhat we don\u2019t know is how pricing and economics will evolve.\u201d<\/p>\n This is what I mean when I say \u201cI don\u2019t know.\u201d I do think, though, that something major \u2014 PIMCO\u2019s Roman singled out US rate hikes, war, or a eurozone crisis as potential triggers \u2014 could flip this market. We\u2019re not in go-go-go territory now. Maybe that will change; it\u2019s possible Anthropic\u2019s IPO will go blockbuster and it\u2019ll be like when someone rolls up to a party that\u2019s running low on beer with a 24-pack. But as more people are expressing caution \u2014 and particularly after the disaster at Situational Awareness<\/a> \u2014 the best part of the party might be over.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"People, including on this staff, keep asking me with varying degrees of excitement or trepidation when the AI…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":905096,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[182,184,28,168,1282,1281,172],"class_list":["post-905095","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-ai","tag-anthropic","tag-business","tag-google","tag-meta","tag-microsoft","tag-tech"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/905095","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=905095"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/905095\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/905096"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=905095"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=905095"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=905095"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}