Welcome back to Braves Today\u2019s Friday Mailbag, where we solicit questions from you, the readers. Doing a mailbag even once, let alone on a regularly scheduled basis, is an egocentric exercise, so I\u2019m grateful to everyone who reached out with questions.<\/p>\n
As Jason Isbell sings<\/a>, \u201cI\u2019m lucky to have the work.\u201d<\/p>\n (If you have something to submit for the mailbag, you can email me at contact@bravestoday.com. Paid subscribers get first priority, but I pull questions from email and social media too.)<\/p>\n Let\u2019s talk about it.<\/p>\n I was listening to MLB Radio this week and heard Alex Avila<\/a> discussing different free-agent catcher options surrounding Ryan Jeffers<\/a>. He mentioned that, for him, he would pick a catcher with offensive skills over defensive skills every day of the week. Wrong or right, with my rose-colored Sean Murphy<\/a> glasses on, I took immediate offense.<\/p>\n However, the more I thought about it as a fan of defense, game-calling, and ABS zone smarts, it made me wonder how much offense I am willing to sacrifice for that. Would I let more offensive weakness slide than the average Braves fan? Should I?<\/p>\n Do you think there\u2019s a bigger difference between the best-hitting and worst-hitting catcher in the league, or between the best-fielding and worst-fielding catcher? Other than WAR, is there a way to quantify the balance of a catcher that you think tells the best story? I feel like catchers would be a nightmare to successfully scout.<\/p>\n Darin<\/p>\n Love this question – thanks, Darin. <\/p>\n As someone who used to do a daily prospect podcast and struggled to get enough looks at a prospect to have an informed idea of their defense, it is a nightmare to scout that aspect of the game, and that\u2019s doubly so for catchers. <\/p>\n I\u2019m on the side of preferring the catcher\u2019s defense over the offense, similar to you. I think a lot of that is the impact that it can have on your team as a whole, and specifically your pitching staff. A great defensive catcher can cover up for mistakes and optimize your pitching to a level that a bad catcher just can\u2019t do. <\/p>\n Our ability to fully evaluate catcher defense in the public sphere is sorely lacking – this is the biggest outstanding analytical \u201cblind spot\u201d right now, according to analytics people I\u2019ve spoken to around the league – but even with what we do know how to track and quantify, we know that the league\u2019s best defensive catcher has a larger impact on the game than the best defensive outfielder or infielder. <\/p>\n Here are 2025\u2019s leaders in Fielding Run Value, split between those three types of fielders, along with the components that went into their scores: <\/p>\n Patrick Bailey<\/a> (catcher): +31 FRV \/\/ +25 runs from framing, +5 runs from throwing, +1 run from blocking<\/p>\n Pete Crow-Armstrong<\/a> (center fielder): +21 FRV \/\/ +18 runs from range (Outs Above Average), +3 runs from arm value<\/p>\n Bobby Witt Jr.<\/a> (shortstop): +20 FRV \/\/ +18 runs from Range (OAA), +0 runs from arm value, +2 runs from double plays<\/p>\n (Framing\u2019s gotten so much better over the last 15-20 years, but that\u2019s a newsletter for another day.)<\/p>\n The catcher has the largest defensive impact that we can currently measure, and I suspect game calling and overall guidance of the pitching staff play a larger role than we probably think. <\/p>\n The hard part here is that the standard for catcher offense is lower than other positions, and so outstanding catcher offense is more of a differentiator than outstanding catcher defense according to the metrics that we have. Some of this is due to the presence of the defense-first backup catcher, but also a recognition of the difficulties of the position and the toll it takes on your body. <\/p>\n Here\u2019s each position in MLB in 2026, sorted by OPS:<\/p>\n Catcher: .690 I can see why Avila would want the better offensive player, as his above-average offensive ability is more of a differentiator versus his peers than if you had the best offensive right fielder in the league or the best first baseman.<\/p>\n (Atlanta has both when they\u2019re on in Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.<\/a> and Matt Olson<\/a>.)<\/p>\n I\u2019m not including this to discredit his opinion at all, but I do also want to point out that Avila\u2019s own career could probably help explain that preference. Most of his value came from his bat, and that 2011 breakout season for the Tigers at age 24 demonstrated exactly how much an impact offensive catcher can lift a lineup. He started the All-Star Game that year and won a Silver Slugger, putting up a .295\/.389\/.506 line (140 wRC+), 19 home runs, and 82 RBI while getting down-ballot MVP votes. <\/p>\n At the end of the day, I like how Atlanta has one exceptional defender in Murphy and one exceptional hitter in Baldwin. I do think Drake\u2019s defense has improved over the last two seasons, while Murphy\u2019s been unable to stay healthy enough to get hot at the plate, but overall the dynamic works for the Braves and gives them a designated hitter option on days when Murphy\u2019s behind the plate. <\/p>\n If I had to pick just one, this is where I\u2019m making the tradeoff and sacrificing offense for defense, since the average catcher\u2019s not that great of a hitter anyway. <\/p>\n But the frustratingly honest answer to your question might be that while we can measure the offensive difference, the total defensive difference might actually be larger. Public metrics just can\u2019t yet quantify the game calling and pitcher management aspects of it, yet, and that\u2019s one area where traditional scouting will likely still reign supreme for a while. <\/p>\n Do the guys actually want to win, or are they really just there for the paycheck? Is commitment to winning one of the \u201cclubhouse culture\u201d factors AA talks about so much? If we as fans are living and dying on every pitch, can we expect that of the players as well?<\/p>\n Dave<\/p>\n Story time. <\/p>\n My first spring training as credentialed media was Chris Sale<\/a>\u2019s first season with the team, 2024. I remember standing just outside the clubhouse after his third start of spring, one in which he had a smooth first inning and then gave up some dumb hits and three runs in the second frame. <\/p>\n The small huddle is me, Justin Toscano of the AJC, and a producer for MLB Network waiting to get Sale mic\u2019d up for a hit. Just the three of us. That\u2019s how attendance goes sometimes when it\u2019s the third week of spring training, y\u2019know? <\/p>\n Anyway, I asked Sale if in spring training and coming off of the injuries he\u2019s had in recent seasons, for a start like that, he’s more focused on how the ball\u2019s coming out and what he feels like afterward, or if he’s trying to get strikeouts and get out of the outing without any runs. <\/p>\n I was asking about process vs results, essentially, and what matters most to him. <\/p>\n Sale looks into my eyes, completely deadpan, and says: \u201cWhen I step on a baseball field, it\u2019s competition. You want to do well and you want to compete. I don\u2019t think anybody\u2019s ever all right with not doing good or not performing well.\u201d <\/p>\n Now, he was busting my balls a bit here; he did crack a smile and start to seriously answer the question I was trying to ask (over Justin\u2019s friendly laughter, for the record), but the point was made: they\u2019ve worked too hard and sacrificed too much to make the majors to not take it seriously and not want to win every time they step on the field. <\/p>\n There certainly are players that have a more\u2026complicated relationship with the sport. Anthony Rendon<\/a> famously told my friend Jack Vita<\/a> that the season was too long and that baseball ranked farther down his priority list than a lot of guys might admit. But even that\u2019s a different line of thought from saying he didn\u2019t care about performing.<\/p>\n At the same time, I think they\u2019re also wired differently than us. Baseball\u2019s a game that\u2019s built on failure – if you\u2019re able to consistently get a hit 4 times out of 10, you\u2019re gonna be a Hall of Famer – and so they\u2019re better able to regulate their emotions, flush a bad performance, and move on from the game\u2019s result than we are. But yes, I think they care just as much as we do, maybe even more, although they might not always outwardly show it or express it in a way that\u2019s satisfying to us. <\/p>\n My question is mainly about why the insistence on considering Fuentes and Kerr as possible starters, when this World Series just proved the absolute requirement for a shutdown bullpen. Both Kerr and Fuentes were great in 2026, along with Iglesias, Su\u00e1rez, and Suter as the long reliever.<\/p>\n The pitching, even with its shortcomings, was not the main reason the team did not win more games and go further in the postseason. That was reserved for the inconsistent and missing offense. Yes, the Braves need two new starters minimum, but their glaring need to actually hit the ball and move runners is the number one priority.<\/p>\n The way both teams in the 2026 World Series got there was not home runs alone, as the Braves have so dearly depended on for the last several years\u2014for example, Chipper\u2019s interview in 2024 about the Braves\u2019 hitting philosophy. With that said, I think Walt did a very good job in his first year, but my opinion is that Pat Murphy<\/a> will most likely win Manager of the Year, and my reasoning is his \u201cjust win today\u201d approach.<\/p>\n Final point: the bullpen has been great, the most complete part of the team. Don\u2019t rob from there to fix the lack of starting pitching.<\/p>\n Ray<\/p>\n For the record, while I wrote up both guys and what they need to do to work out as starters in 2027, I don\u2019t seriously expect Kerr to be in the rotation next season. His workload this season was just too small to build enough of a foundation to make it through 162 games plus the postseason. <\/p>\n But to answer your question, it\u2019s because more often than not, the value of even an average #3 starter is, individually, greater than that of all but the best relievers in the game. And perhaps that\u2019s a flaw of using WAR to evaluate relievers when we really should be looking at Win Probability Added (which the Dodgers do when making their bullpen additions), but I agree that the Braves need to make sure the bullpen\u2019s reinforced and protected against another Suarez injury. With Raisel Iglesias<\/a> a free agent, having someone who could close if Suarez is out for some time is crucial, and Fuentes could do that. <\/p>\n But part of this is supply and demand, right? It\u2019s easier (and cheaper) to find a setup man in free agency than it is to find a #3 starter, as we\u2019ve demonstrated over the last few years when we\u2019ve signed a setup man but not any #3 starters. <\/p>\n IF Fuentes remains the setup man and Atlanta pays Tyler Mahle<\/a> roughly $16M for 2027, they have addressed both roles. But if Fuentes can be an equivalent #3 starter, the Braves could spend $8-9 million<\/a> for an Evan Phillips<\/a> or Jason Adam<\/a> or even A.J. Minter<\/a> and come out ahead on the money. <\/p>\n And that ignores the other option of using pitching prospects in relief, which wasn\u2019t really a common thing for Atlanta until this season. <\/p>\n (You\u2019re welcome for that, by the way – I directly asked Anthopoulos about that heading into the 2025 winter meetings<\/a>, and he told me that it\u2019s something he\u2019s personally a fan of, but it never seemed to work with their bullpen construction. Lo and behold, they stick Fuentes back there the very next season and use both J.R. Ritchie and Owen Murphy<\/a> in the pen at times.)<\/p>\n I agree with you that Fuentes does great work back there and should probably be used in the same role next season, for Walt Weiss<\/a>\u2019 peace of mind. But they can always shorten him up<\/a> if they either need him back there or he\u2019s not working out in the rotation, and him successfully making that conversion would allow them to spend more money on the offensive additions<\/a>. <\/p>\n Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr., Owen Murphy, and Conor Essenburg<\/a> for Gunnar Henderson<\/a> and Ryan Helsley<\/a>. Thoughts?<\/p>\n Doc<\/p>\n This was in response to my podcast episode<\/a> discussing the Baltimore Banner\u2019s report that Baltimore is willing to listen on nearly everyone, including Gunnar Henderson, in the trade market this winter. Doesn\u2019t mean they\u2019re looking to move Gunnar, necessarily, and the article even clarifies that they\u2019d need to be blown away by the offer, but they\u2019ll have the conversation. <\/p>\n They\u2019d likely be blown away by Doc\u2019s offer. <\/p>\n Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr. is under the same constraint that Henderson is – signed for only two more seasons, with Baltimore unlikely to be able to re-sign him when he hits free agency – but it\u2019d be replacing an injury-prone MVP candidate at shortstop with an injury-prone former MVP in right field. When you pair that with one of Atlanta\u2019s top pitching prospects in Owen Murphy and a sneaky potential power bat in Conor Essenburg? Baltimore would probably accept this offer. Atlanta shouldn\u2019t make it.<\/p>\n I don\u2019t think Atlanta needs to move Acu\u00f1a in a trade. First is that while he\u2019s been injury-prone, he\u2019s also been pretty good when he\u2019s been on the field. In his partial 2025 season, where he played only 95 games after returning from his knee injury, he was pretty good – .290\/.417\/.518 with 21 homers and 9 stolen bases, a full-season pace of 36\/15. At his salary of $17 million, less than Anthony Santander<\/a>, Trent Grisham<\/a>, and Ian Happ<\/a> made last year, that\u2019s a steal. <\/p>\n The second is that he wasn\u2019t very good to end this season while working around two hamstring strains and some other minor issues, so you\u2019d be \u2018selling low\u2019, as much as that\u2019s possible for a former MVP who is owed only $34M combined over the next two seasons. <\/p>\n But the third reason is that all that does is exchange one lineup hole for another. Sure, it\u2019s been hard to find a shortstop, but know what else is hard to find? An MVP-caliber leadoff hitter to fill your right field vacancy. If you were to trade Acu\u00f1a tomorrow, the starting outfield would be Jurickson Profar<\/a>, Michael Harris II<\/a>, and Mike Yastrzemski<\/a>. It doesn\u2019t matter who is at shortstop, that\u2019s not a better offense than what they have now with Ronald in there for however many games he stays healthy. The Henderson money in arbitration is projected to be roughly $14.1 million, per MLBTR\u2019s calculations, and so you\u2019d save about $3M while still needing to fill a big offensive hole by throwing money at a free agent. Sure, there are technically more options in the outfield than at shortstop, but there\u2019s also more teams looking for outfielders than shortstops in this class, too. <\/p>\n It just doesn\u2019t help you build that much better of a team. Now, if you can re-do the deal to not include Acu\u00f1a (and maybe bring back a reliever that\u2019s not Ryan Helsley, like Felix Bautista<\/a>), then I\u2019m all for it. <\/p>\n I also wonder about how much value \u201cmarketing\u201d plays in roster decisions. I\u2019m sure the Braves each year build a marketing plan around two or three superstar players to sell things like jerseys and bring kids and non-traditional fans out. If Acu\u00f1a, Riley, and Ozzie are fading, is there a world where you still keep a fading star largely for marketing and name-recognition purposes beyond their on-field production value?<\/p>\n Yonnie<\/p>\n This may be a small part of the reason Ozzie\u2019s still here – he\u2019s the longest-tenured member of the team, cheap, and well-liked by fans. Fan sentiment does matter. Alex Anthopoulos frequently references needing to acknowledge Vaughn Grissom<\/a>\u2019s popularity to Chairman Terry McGuirk when he brought the Grissom-for-Sale trade to him for approval, telling him \u201cit\u2019s gonna get loud\u201d when the fans see who was shipped out. <\/p>\n But at the same time, I don\u2019t think they\u2019re necessarily building entire Braves campaigns around specific players. Sure, they want to make sure they feature certain players in certain marketing materials, but Atlanta\u2019s never really been that city that makes a massive outward push of one of their stars in pursuit of helping that guy get an award. I don\u2019t think they\u2019d keep an underperforming, fading star that long if he was terrible just in the hopes of selling a few more tickets. <\/p>\n Besides, they <\/a>will<\/a> still sell your merch even after you\u2019re gone<\/a>, even if most of the fans were happy to see you go. <\/p>\n Is a player\u2019s salary paid throughout the twelve-month year, or is it paid from day one of the regular season to the end of the postseason? If it is the latter, then it seems to me the Braves could benefit from a lockout-shortened season, with Profar\u2019s $15 million being reduced by the percentage of scheduled games that are canceled.<\/p>\n Bruce<\/p>\n This is a good one, because a lot of folks don\u2019t know how it works. I confirmed much of this with a recently retired player, just to make sure nothing\u2019s changed recently. <\/p>\n First is that it\u2019s important to know that players don\u2019t get paid per game, they get paid per day of the regular season they\u2019re on the roster. A normal season is 162 games over 187 days, and their salary is accrued 1\/187th at a time. If they\u2019re on the injured list, that counts and they get paid for that day, but if they\u2019re suspended (hello, Profar), they\u2019re not accruing service time and therefore don\u2019t get paid. <\/p>\n Most teams pay by direct deposit semi-monthly (1st and 15th) across the duration of the regular season, as specified by the CBA. Not every league is like this – the NFL allows players to specify how they want to be paid in their contracts, and you can do everything from a paper check to a wire transfer to being paid in bitcoin<\/a>. <\/p>\n Yes, they have a 401(k), and it\u2019s deducted from their paycheck just like it is for you and me (as well as various things they pay for like clubhouse dues or meals). They get a W-2 at the end of the year, but they also get hit with a ton of what are called \u201cjock taxes\u201d from every state in which they play a game. They also get a per diem while on the road, usually $120 a day (historically given out in cash, but it varies per team). <\/p>\n But you\u2019re right in that the lockout does change things. In 2020, with a shortened 60-game season, player compensation was adjusted to strictly prorated salaries based on the number of games actually played. Players received 37.04% of their original salaries, so Profar\u2019s $15 million owed in 2027 would have been $5.556 million in 2020.<\/p>\n (And yes, it was a contentious negotiation there, too – the owners wanted to implement some complicated sliding scales for proration, whereas the players just wanted the proration to be based on the number of games in the season.) <\/p>\n We don\u2019t know exactly what the pay will look like if they don\u2019t play a full 162 games in 2027; that\u2019ll have to get negotiated between the parties. <\/p>\n We\u2019re over 3200 words already, so let\u2019s do some rapid fire. <\/p>\n Over or under 100 innings for Didier Fuentes<\/a> in 2027? – Doc<\/p>\n As long as he stays healthy, give me the over. Remember, when you combine the postseason and his time in Gwinnett, he threw 97 innings in 2026. I\u2019m one of the outliers in that I\u2019m more worried about his stamina in games than I am about him potentially being able to throw 140-150 innings this season. <\/p>\n Who will lead the Braves in saves next year?<\/p>\n Robert Suarez<\/a>. Again, health is the caveat here, but give me 35. <\/p>\n The Braves bring back Dub\u00f3n, Iglesias, Mahle, Suter, and Lane Thomas<\/a>, and sign one free agent of your choosing. Who is it?<\/p>\n
Second base: .698
Shortstop: .703
Center field: .714
Third base: .717
Left field: .724
Right field: .731
Designated hitter: .737
First base: .771<\/p>\n