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\n Updated:
\nNov 7, 2026 , 09:16 AM ET<\/p>\n
\u2022 4 min read<\/p>\n
Our college football expert is fading a struggling, banged-up Texas offense on Saturday afternoon.<\/p>\n
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Arch Manning, Austin Simmons NCAAF<\/p>\n
Texas heads to Columbia with its top two receivers questionable, adding another concern for an offense that’s struggled to find its rhythm. My Texas vs. Missouri prediction examines whether the Longhorns can overcome those issues against a dangerous Tigers defense.<\/p>\n
Missouri is a perfect 4-0 at home and fresh off a convincing 34-10 win at Arkansas. The Tigers know how to get after the quarterback, which could spell trouble for Arch Manning behind a shaky Texas offensive line.<\/p>\n
I’m taking the points with Missouri and expecting a low-scoring battle in Saturday’s SEC showdown. Find out why in my latest college football picks<\/a> for Week 10.<\/p>\n TOP PICK I would play the Missouri Tigers<\/a> to cover this number down to 52%.<\/p>\n The Texas Longhorns<\/a>\u2019 passing game runs through Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo, and both are questionable after leaving the win over Mississippi State hurt. Coleman hasn\u2019t practiced this week.<\/p>\n To make matters worse, left tackle Trevor Goosby is out.\u00a0Arch Manning<\/a> was already producing -0.04 EPA per dropback with all three of them in the lineup.<\/p>\n Missouri\u2019s Austin Simmons<\/a> sits at 0.20 EPA per dropback, and he gets a Texas secondary with two starting corners listed as questionable. Mizzou is 4-0 at home this season, winning those games by an average of 24.8 points.<\/p>\n I’ll gladly take the team in better form with the better offense.<\/p>\n Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account I\u2019d play the Under to 42.5.<\/p>\n Missouri will want to lean on Jamal Roberts, but they own a 37.8% rushing success rate, 128th nationally. That\u2019s a rough matchup against a Texas defense allowing a 35.8% rushing success rate, seventh in the country.<\/p>\n Missouri also stalls near the goal line, posting a 35.7% success rate in the red zone, 125th nationally.<\/p>\n The Texas offense will come into this one banged up and already struggling. Neither offense is built to win a shootout.<\/p>\n Texas vs. Missouri prop: Texas team total Under 23.5<\/p>\n Texas has posted negative offensive EPA per play in five straight games, and Coleman and Wingo were healthy for most of that stretch.<\/p>\n Field position makes it worse. Texas ranks 137th of 138 teams in EPA per play on its own half of the field, so drives that start deep rarely flip the field.<\/p>\n Missouri\u2019s defense ranks 11th in havoc rate at 19.1%, while Texas allows havoc on 17.1% of its snaps, 105th nationally. With Goosby out at left tackle, I don\u2019t see that gap closing.<\/p>\n Texas vs. Missouri combo<\/p>\n Every leg runs through the same idea. Texas\u2019 offense was already the weak link before its top receivers got hurt, and Missouri can win a low-scoring game at home.<\/p>\n The moneyline anchors it. If Texas can\u2019t move the ball past midfield, Missouri doesn\u2019t need a big day from its own offense to win, and both totals stay low.<\/p>\n If the Tigers\u2019 run game gets stuffed instead, that only strengthens the Under.<\/p>\n Texas vs. Missouri combo<\/p>\n Missouri moneyline Texas vs Missouri smart money<\/p>\n Texas vs. Missouri odds<\/p>\n For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator<\/a>.<\/p>\n Spread: Texas -2.5 | Missouri +2.5 For the full slate of college football matchups<\/a>, check out our college football odds<\/a> board!<\/p>\n More Covers college football betting tools<\/p>\n Texas vs. Missouri weather<\/p>\n Saturday\u2019s forecast in Columbia calls for temperatures in the mid-40s at kickoff, no chance of precipitation, and light winds around 4 mph.\u00a0The game should not be meaningfully impacted by the weather.<\/p>\n Check out our college football weather<\/a> page for up-to-date info on every matchup.<\/p>\n Texas vs. Missouri trend to know<\/p>\n The Under is 5-1 in the Tigers’ last six games overall. Find more college football betting trends<\/a> for Texas vs. Missouri.<\/p>\n How to watch Texas vs. Missouri<\/p>\n Location Date Kickoff TV Texas vs. Missouri latest injuries<\/p>\n
Who will win Texas vs. Missouri: Missouri +2.5<\/p>\n![\"Covers\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/1794076934_321_logo.png\"){kind=logo}
COVERS INTEL: The metrics<\/a> show Missouri winning the field-position battle by 5.7 yards per drive, 13th nationally, while Texas sits 79th at -0.6 yards.<\/p>\n![\"Add](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/1794076935_536_google-preferred-source-badge.png\"){kind=icon}
<\/a>Texas vs. Missouri Over\/Under pick: Under 43.5<\/p>\n
\nUnder 43.5
\nTexas team total Under 23.5<\/p>\n
\nOver\/Under: Over 46.5 (50%) | Under 46.5 (50%)
\nMoneyline: Texas 54% | Missouri 48%<\/p>\n
\nMemorial Stadium, Columbia, MO<\/p>\n
\nSaturday, Nov. 7, 2026<\/p>\n
\nNoon ET<\/p>\n
\nESPN<\/p>\n