North Carolina Democrats for years courted financial support from Washington-based political groups and other out-of-state donors on the prospect that they could win high-profile federal races \u2014 only to fall short, even as Democrats won other races down the ballot.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Democrats reversed that trend on Election Day when former Gov. Roy Cooper defeated Republican Michael Whatley in the state\u2019s U.S. Senate race by about 20 percentage points, becoming the first Democrat to win the seat since 2008. Democrats also unseated at least half of the Republicans who represent North Carolina in the U.S. House of Representatives \u2014 and could still net even more by the time all the votes are counted and, potentially, recounted. Democrats also took control of the state House for the first time since 2010.<\/p>\n
Two years from now, though, some of the Democrats who were elected Tuesday\u00a0 could face uphill battles to keep the seats they just won, political analysts say.\u00a0<\/p>\n
That\u2019s partly because North Carolina\u2019s largest voting bloc is unaffiliated voters, many of whom can\u2019t be relied upon to vote for either party consistently. Through October, the state had more than 3.1 million voters registered as unaffiliated, 2.34 million registered as Democrats and 2.33 million registered as Republicans.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s also because some Democrats eked out victories in districts that Republican legislators had drawn to favor the GOP, and political analysts say Democratic candidates are unlikely to enjoy the same tailwinds in 2028.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Midterm elections are usually referendums on the party that holds the White House. And while President Donald Trump carried the Tar Heel State in each of the three presidential races, the midterm results suggest that North Carolina Republicans will benefit from having a new presidential nominee two years from now \u2014 presumably one who might inspire higher participation among the GOP base and attract more of the state\u2019s unaffiliated voters, who broke hard for Democrats this year. Polls conducted in October found Trump\u2019s approval rating hovering around 35% in North Carolina.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Many of the seats Democrats won Tuesday, in the state legislature and U.S. Congress, represent districts where voters backed Trump by double digits in 2024. But Cooper won in places like Johnston, Harnett, Haywood and Richmond counties \u2014 rural areas where more than 60% of voters backed Trump just two years ago \u2014 and helped other Democrats across the finish line as well.<\/p>\n
\u201c2026 is really unlike any midterm election that we have seen in quite some time,\u201d said Michael Bitzer, a political scientist at Catawba College. \u201cI would caution Democrats, in particular: this year’s performance will not necessarily equate to 2028.\u201d<\/p>\n
On North Carolina\u2019s ballot in 2028: the presidency, a U.S. Senate seat, the governor and other Council of State positions, three state Supreme Court seats, as well as every congressional and legislative seat.<\/p>\n
Polling this year showed that North Carolinians held a negative view of the economy and blamed Trump, citing his tariffs on foreign goods and his war with Iran. A WRAL\/WSOC Poll<\/a> released last month found that the nation\u2019s economic health was the only issue that a majority of adults agreed on as a top concern.\u00a0<\/p>\n But consumer costs and economic conditions could change significantly before the 2028 elections.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cTwo years is a very long time in politics,\u201d said Sunshine Hillygus, a political scientist at Duke University. \u201cJust because the president’s party loses seats in the midterm election does not tell us what’s going to happen in the next presidential election.\u201d<\/p>\n Republican and Democratic strategists agreed. The 2028 election will be \u201cfundamentally different,\u201d said Dallas Woodhouse, a longtime Republican strategist and former executive director of the state GOP.\u00a0\u201cPresidential elections are about the future, and two new party nominees will be the focus, not the soon-to-be former president,\u201d Woodhouse told WRAL.<\/p>\n Ken Martin, chair of the Democratic National Committee, told WRAL that the party plans to continue investing heavily in North Carolina. \u201cNorth Carolina will be a battleground in the presidential contest as it has in the past, and so we’re going to be spending a lot of time, energy, and money in North Carolina on the presidential race, on the Senate race, and other races on the ballot,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\tNext US Senate race<\/p>\n North Carolina U.S. Sen. Ted Budd\u2019s seat will be on the ballot in 2028, and he is expected to seek reelection.\u00a0<\/p>\n Democrats believe Budd is vulnerable because the first-term Republican has been a supporter of Trump\u2019s agenda for years, dating to his time in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2017 through 2022. In 2021, Trump cited Budd\u2019s longtime support when endorsing<\/a> the congressman\u2019s run for U.S. Senate.\u00a0<\/p>\n Morgan Jackson, a strategist for Cooper and other Democrats in North Carolina, told WRAL he believes Budd is the most vulnerable Republican in the U.S. Senate. But Jackson said Democrats can only defeat Budd if they deliver lower prices for Americans over the next two years, when the party has control of Congress.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cAgenda One, if you’re in Congress, is to come up with an affordability agenda,\u201d Jackson said. \u201cNot a 378-page document, but simple fixes that can help the American people and bring immediate relief.\u201d<\/p>\n Democrats need to be laser-focused on repealing tariffs, stopping the Iran war, and addressing rising healthcare premiums, Jackson said.\u00a0<\/p>\n Budd has already demonstrated that he\u2019s focused on the needs of North Carolinians, said Jonathan Felts, a Budd campaign spokesman. He cited Budd\u2019s clashes with Kristi Noem, Trump\u2019s former U.S. Homeland Security Secretary, over the slow pace of aid for victims of Hurricane Helene. The storm caused $60 billion in damages to western North Carolina when it hit the state in September 2024. To date, the federal government has issued about $11 billion in relief.\u00a0<\/p>\n In September 2025, Budd told the White House that he planned to block<\/a> Trump\u2019s DHS nominees unless Noem lifted a policy requiring her to personally sign off on any expenditure over $100,000. Trump fired Noem<\/a> about six months later, in March.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cTed’s top consideration with everything he does as a U.S. senator is what’s best for the working families in North Carolina,\u201d Felts said. \u201cHe’s going to continue working with that being the top priority and we feel very confident that he’ll be reelected in 2028.\u201d<\/p>\n Woodhouse, the GOP strategist, noted that Republican U.S. Senate candidates have fared better against Democrats in presidential elections than midterm elections. The last Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate in a presidential election was the late Kay Hagan in 2008. Prior to that, it was the late Democratic U.S. Sen. Sam Ervin in 1968.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe effects of redistricting<\/p>\n North Carolina\u2019s congressional and legislative election maps are expected to pose another obstacle for Democrats in 2028.<\/p>\n Republican legislators, who have controlled the North Carolina General Assembly since 2011, have drawn election maps over the years to favor GOP candidates \u2014 resulting in multiple legal challenges. In 2022, court-ordered maps that were drawn by independent redistricting consultants led to a 7-7 split among Republicans and Democrats in North Carolina\u2019s congressional delegation.\u00a0<\/p>\n The following year, Republican legislators drew new election maps that allowed the GOP to win 10 of the state\u2019s 14 Congressional seats in the 2024 election. Political observers say Democratic wins in some of the state\u2019s congressional and legislative races this year were only possible because of a blue wave that North Carolina hasn\u2019t experienced in decades.\u00a0<\/p>\n