![\"\"](\"https:\/\/platform.azsnakepit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/16\/2026\/11\/scott.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100\")
<\/a><\/p>\nScott struck out hitters like a top-quarter starter in his first season back from surgery. His FIP was better than his ERA, which suggests some bad luck. He\u2019s under team control through 2030, and our my trade model puts his surplus value around $28M. That\u2019s at the top of the 75\u201380 cent range on Marte, so Arizona wouldn\u2019t need to send money or ask for another prospect.<\/p>\n
The risk: Innings
Scott moved fast. He was drafted in 2021 at 22 and debuted in May 2024. Then he hurt his UCL after 47 MLB innings, had hybrid Tommy John surgery that September and missed all of 2025. He turns 28 in June with only 157 career MLB innings and has never thrown more than about 125 in a season, counting the minors. His walk rate also rose to 9.9%, well above his 3\u20137% in most minor-league stops, which can be common in the first year back from a major surgery like that. Arizona needs innings, and Scott hasn\u2019t shown he can provide 160 of them. That\u2019s the main reason this deal could be a risky bet for Arizona, but it is also the main reason why the Mets may be willing to give up such upside.<\/p>\n
The 2027 Cost
This trade costs Arizona wins next year. Losing Marte is worth about \u22124 wins, and Scott gets back roughly 1, so the swap is about \u22123 before spending the money. Moving Marte frees about $12.75M for 2027, which buys about 1.3 wins at market prices. Net, Arizona is about 1.5 to 2 wins worse in 2027 unless they find second-base help.<\/p>\n
In my humble opinion, an arm like Christian Scott is exactly the kind of gamble this team needs to take. A controllable starter whose stuff really plays. His Stuff+ was 116 in 2026 was in the 93rd percentile and his K% of 28.3 was in the 90th percentile. He likely has the ceiling of a real No. 2 starter (4-5 WAR) if he cuts back his walk rate and finds a better 3rd pitch for lefties. His stuff is already near the top of the league, walks and innings are what is holding him back. From a projections standpoint: Steamer 2027: 145 IP, 3.86 FIP (45th of 176 projected starters), K% 24th, 2.3 WAR (54th). From a player comps standpoint: 25 starter-seasons from 2022\u201325 closest to his Stuff+, K% and BB% at ages 25\u201329 include Dylan Cease, Cole Ragans, Blake Snell, Freddy Peralta and MacKenzie Gore. That\u2019s exactly the high-strikeout, high-walk profile we are talking about here. The next season for that group: median 2.2 fWAR in 168 IP; 40% reached 3+ WAR, 20% reached 4+, and the 90th percentile was 4.7; 28% threw fewer than 80 innings.<\/p>\n
I like this move for both teams. The Dbacks get worse in 2027, but get a solid upside starter and get Ketel off the team and free up some cash. The Mets get to make the big splash and get the best bat of the offseason for a starter with little track record and immediately run out one of the top offenses in baseball with Ketel, Soto, Lindor, and Bichette. They also are in a good position to sign one of the big offseason starting pitching arms out there as Jon Heyman of the NY Post said last week that the Mets are in on Skubal.<\/p>\n
Overall, it ultimately depends on whether or not the Mets believe they can work with Ketel Marte and whether or not they are already planning on bolstering their rotation in free agency.<\/p>\n
Bonus Content! Runner-Up Mock Trades for Ketel:<\/p>\n
If you\u2019ve made it this far and want to keep mock trading for Ketel, I figured I may as well share my runner up mocks as well:<\/p>\n
PHI for Andrew Painter- PHI also bad need for offense (2027 Steamer 95 wRC+ ranks 28th), and has a surplus of pitching but Painter not as proven as Scott, bigger risk for ARI. But Painter throws hard: 96.6 mph, held all season, at age 23, and more than 150 total innings in 2026 between MLB and AAA. His secondaries were very good. Hitters managed a .177 wOBA against the changeup as lefties and .241 as righties, with whiff rates of 35\u201338%. His sweeper held righties to .205. However his 4 seamer got hit hard in 2026. .544 wOBA against righties, and only an 11.4% whiff rate against lefties.<\/p>\n
DET for Jackson Jobe- DET has a big hole at 2B and is reportedly in on some big FA as it appears they have a real shot to contend in 2027 and beyond in a weak AL Central. They also have a wealth of young arms. Young pitchers like Jobe usually aren\u2019t available, however he has some real durability issues. Jobe threw about 61 innings in 2026 with rehab, 49 in 2025, and has never topped about 96 in a season. But real top of the rotation potential here.<\/p>\n
NYY for Will Warren- Much lower ceiling than Jobe, Scott, or Painter, but more of a steady innings presence at the backend of a rotation. Take a swing for an upside arm IMO. NYY need a 2nd basemen.<\/p>\n
PHI for Gage Wood- If PHI wont do Painter, Wood is near MLB ready but gave up a lot of HR in 2026 and only threw 95 innings in 2026 so a full starters workload in 2027 would be a stretch. High upside though.<\/p>\n
NYM for Jonathan Santucci and Jack Wenninger- If the Mets wont do Scott, and the Dbacks are willing to settle for unproven MLB talent, this is a good blend of upside and innings. For Santucci, the swing-and-miss is real: his swinging-strike rate was 95th percentile at both AA and AAA. His slider got 39.8% whiffs per swing and his curve 47.5%, on 610 tracked pitches. But has a real walks problem. However, Wenninger threw 115 AAA innings last year so provides some more proven floor to the deal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Tis\u2019 the season for mock trades! Dbacks fans are no stranger to Ketel Marte rumors as we have…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":910850,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[221304,363,99],"class_list":["post-910849","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-arizona-diamondbacks-analysis","tag-mlb","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/910849","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=910849"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/910849\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910850"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=910849"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=910849"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=910849"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}