Virginia job growth is expected to stall by 2026, with 9,000+ jobs lost by end of 2025. Gubernatorial candidate Spanberger weighs in on economic concerns.<\/p>\n
RICHMOND, Va. \u2014 Virginia is projected to have virtually no job growth in 2026, according to a new analysis from the University of Virginia\u2019s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.<\/p>\n
The report forecasts the state will lose more than 9,000 jobs by the end of 2025, citing delayed federal layoffs and postponed tariffs under the Trump administration.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe expect 2026 to be weaker now, basically zero percent job growth \u2013 so flat, which is not something you want,\u201d said Eric Scorsone, the center\u2019s executive director. \u201cGenerally, you want job growth. If you look at the last decade, we were growing closer to two percent. So, the difference between zero and two percent is actually quite significant.\u201d<\/p>\n
Economists warn that stagnant growth could cause Virginians to leave the state and discourage companies from investing. CNBC recently dropped Virginia\u2019s \u201cbest in business\u201d designation, citing economic concerns.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnother thing that you might see is companies postponing investment because simply they don’t expect the economy to be so strong [or] people willing to spend so much money,\u201d said UVA economist Joao Ferreira. \u201cAnd so, they might start postponing new investment, which also feeds the capacity of the economy to recover from these types of slowdowns.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Weldon Cooper Center\u2019s forecast also placed Virginia\u2019s outlook within a national context:<\/p>\n
Inflation: After peaking at 7.1% in 2022, consumer prices moderated to 2.7% in 2024 but are projected to rise again by 3.2% in 2025, with 2.9% expected in 2026. Economists attribute the increases to ongoing trade frictions and uncertainty surrounding tariffs.<\/p>\n
U.S. job growth: Nationwide, the economy is projected to add only 1.15 million jobs by the end of 2025, a 0.7% increase, with the slowdown expected to bottom out in 2026. Employment is forecast to increase by just 200,000 jobs next year before rebounding slightly in 2027.<\/p>\n
Federal spending: Federal budget cuts are expected to continue, though Virginia may benefit from increases in defense spending because of its specialization in the defense industry.<\/p>\n
Former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, who is running for governor, responded to the report, calling the administration\u2019s policies \u201creckless\u201d and harmful to Virginia families and businesses.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis report confirms what I\u2019m hearing directly from Virginia business leaders, workers, small business owners, farmers and producers, and families \u2014 that the Trump Administration\u2019s reckless policies are stifling Virginia\u2019s job market, driving up costs, and jeopardizing our Commonwealth\u2019s long-term economic strength,\u201d Spanberger said.<\/p>\n
“Virginians deserve a Governor who will put Virginia\u2019s economy first. As Virginia\u2019s next Governor, I will do everything in my power to get Virginia\u2019s economy back on track. I will work every day to foster a strong business climate that promotes growth and creates good-paying jobs.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Weldon Cooper Center will release another forecast in the fall, when more federal workers are expected to separate from government service after taking buyouts.<\/p>\n