PASADENA, CA – MAY 14: Job seekers look over job opening fliers at the WorkSource exhibit, a collaborative effort by governmental agencies to offer jobs and job training resources at the Greater Los Angeles Career Expo at the Pasadena Convention Center on May 14, 2009 in Pasadena, California. Nineteen exhibitors offer job and educational opportunities as well as advice from the Board of Equalization at the event that is open to the general public. (Photo by David McNew/Getty Images)
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I’m an independent career coach – at it for 28 years – and here’s what the job market looks kike to me. Job creation and unemployment rate numbers forcefully grab the headlines on the first Friday of each month, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics issues its monthly tally, and then passively fade into yesterday’s news. But that’s what most of today’s news consumers consume.
Job market numbers that matter
Labor market stats, though, are more complex and interdependent, so here’s what’s wrong with going for the big stuff only.
To job seekers, numbers like 4.3% and tens of thousands of jobs created or lost are not personally relevant. After all, the only number job seeker needs to consider is one – that one job. However, much more meaningful is the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, where we get the feel for the market’s climate, its push and pull, and its degree of difficulty.
Open Jobs
For instance, open jobs, when taken with the measurement of total unemployed, will tell you about the size of the iceberg below the surface. There are 7.181 million open jobs in America right now, an open job being one an employer would fill immediately if the right candidate would just show up. This differs from job creation, as a job could be created and filled immediately as well.
Whose market is it?
When the number of open jobs exceeds the number of unemployed people, it’s a candidate’s market; when the reverse is true, it’s an employer’s market. Obvious.
Currently there are 7.181 million open jobs, but for the first time since the Great Recession of 2008-09, there are more people looking for work, 7.384 million. This is a major tectonic shift and will be discussed in future articles. At best the ratio was 2.0:1 in favor of the candidate. At worst, it was a horrific 6.5:1 against. The current trend is ominous.
To quit or not to quit…
Of the six JOLTS statistics, the other one of particular relevance now is the voluntary quits rate, which tracks the number of people who quit voluntarily without necessarily a new job to go to. A sure sign of confidence, that number was 3.0 in March 2022 but has since plummeted to 2.0.
No matter how you follow the job market, you can’t do it well without JOLTS.