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Rising global temperatures may increase physical inactivity worldwide by 2050, raising health risks and economic costs, a new study warns
A new modelling study suggests that rising global temperatures driven by climate change could push millions more adults worldwide into physical inactivity by 2050, potentially contributing to hundreds of thousands of premature deaths and significant economic losses in productivity. The research highlights the health‑related risks posed by hotter climates and underscores the need for strategies to protect public physical activity levels as global temperatures continue to rise.
The work is published in The Lancet Global Health journal.
Impact of rising temperatures on global physical activity and health
The researchers analysed data from 156 countries between 2000 and 2022 to model how rising temperatures may affect global physical activity through 2050. The model suggests that by 2050, each additional month with an average temperature above 27.8°C would increase physical inactivity by 1.5 percentage points globally and by 1.85 percentage points in low- and middle-income countries, but with no clear impact in high-income countries. This translates to a predicted 0.47–0.70 million additional premature deaths annually and US$ 2.40–3.68 billion in productivity losses.
The model predicts that the largest increases in inactivity will occur in regions such as Central America, the Caribbean, Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, and Equatorial Southeast Asia, where inactivity may rise by more than 4 percentage points per month above 27.8°C.
The results strongly suggest that action is necessary to protect the public from rising heat. Designing cooler cities, providing affordable air-conditioned places to exercise, giving clear advice on how to stay safe in extreme heat, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions are all ways to combat inactivity.
The authors emphasise that the results are based on modelled projects using self-reported activity surveys and considering only temperature changes, which introduces uncertainty about their real-world impacts due to these limitations in model design and input data.
Physical activity and climate change
Physical inactivity is already a major global health problem, with around one in three adults failing to meet the World Health Organization guidelines for weekly exercise, which is 150 min of moderate intensity or 75 minutes of vigorous activity.
Physical inactivity is one of the leading modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and is responsible for an estimated 5% of all adult deaths, drives US$54 billion in annual direct health-care costs, and generates a further $14 billion in productivity losses.
The rise in global temperatures directly affects participation in physical activity. Heat exposure causes physiological constraints through elevated cardiovascular strain and heightened perceived exertion, posing a barrier to outdoor physical activity. Alongside heat, compromised air quality reduces safe opportunities for physical activity, disproportionately impacting low-income populations with poor cooling infrastructure.