Ever since March 2020, I’ve been producing monthly meat department performance reports in partnership with Circana.
When combined with my other research for the Power of Meat, Meat Perceptions and Realities and the National Meat Case studies, the outlook for sustained growth is positive.
Beef sales have always dominated the meat department because of the high price per pound compared with number two, chicken.
However, in 2024 and 2025, beef was the largest but also fastest-growing category in US grocery retailing, and 2026 is off to a strong start.
So, we’ve now seen several years of demand- and inflation-driven growth.
Looking across the 85,000 food sub-categories, whether peanut butter, cookies or chicken breast, Circana data showed that ground beef was the number one item in absolute dollar growth.
Nine out of the top 10 were chicken or beef, showing strong demand growth.
In fact, ground beef was the number three in absolute unit growth.
That creates huge opportunities for New Zealand.
“Claims-based” products, such as organic and grass-fed meat, are having double-digit growth.
Grass-fed is up 37% in dollars for 2025, according to Circana.
You’re a popular kid on the block, and there is a huge opportunity.
Now for our third indicator: who is driving growth?
Perhaps surprisingly, it’s Millennials and Generation Z, consumers up to age 45, the two generations who were supposed to be turning away from meat, through concerns about animal welfare and whether red meat was good for the planet and their own health.
In 2025, Gen Z and Millennials drove 67% of meat and poultry unit growth.
This aligns with a survey of 85,000 US college students’ dietary preferences, which found these were high-protein meals, food for athletic performance, a carnivore diet and functional eating.
Several factors are driving demand for red meat among younger generations and the population in general, with a lead role for protein.
A focus on protein alongside nutrient density is driving renewed engagement across protein.
Beef grew in household penetration, the number of times it’s bought throughout the year and the amount spent on beef: the ultimate growth trifecta.
Ground beef is no longer seen simply as an economical option.
It’s easy to cook, child-friendly, versatile and there’s real love for it, from taco Tuesday to meat sauces and burgers.
Health and lifestyle trends are acting as powerful tailwinds.
Lean New Zealand ground beef is in demand to mix with US-raised ground beef, perceived as a healthier choice.
The Make America Healthy Again (Maha) movement encourages avoiding ultra-processed foods in favour of protein and vegetables.
GLP-1 medications like Ozempic are pushing people towards high-protein, nutrient-dense foods.
Adding information to packaging about nutrient content is educating and creating interest in nutrition.
Anne-Marie Roerink is the founder and president of the 210 Analytics research firm.
Most US meat packs will feature protein content and, if the product is free-range, grass-fed and antibiotic-free.
That information has driven “permission” for the new generations of consumers, while added information such as iron, zinc and omega-3s could drive further interest.
For New Zealand, I cannot emphasise enough the importance of highlighting protein content on retail packaging to help fuel growth domestically as well.
Boomers might still focus on buying US-raised products, but younger consumers care more about animal welfare, looking after the planet and looking after their health – as well as the eating experience.
This is where New Zealand has a huge opportunity through storytelling.
As consumers increasingly prioritise quality, appearance and taste over specific origin, red meat remains a shining light for the New Zealand economy and a vital export.
It is critical New Zealand shows how animals are raised and provide information and imagery, because young consumers recognise they now have options.
These things are the kind of information that will drive permission and favour people wanting to increase the amount of protein they eat.
While beef is the star performer, lamb had a fantastic 2024 and first half of 2025, but price pressure in the latter half of 2025 dampened demand.
Muscle cuts favoured by older consumers are struggling a bit, but ground lamb is a growth area favoured by younger consumers for its ease of cooking.
The Cava restaurant chain has a popular menu item of lamb meatballs, and one of the fastest-growing lamb items in stores is meatballs, as younger consumers look to recreate that experience at home.
Lamb is closing in on a billion-dollar category in the US, and there’s an opportunity with retailers moving lamb beyond a seasonal “Easter” product by introducing limited-time offers (LTOs) during the summer grilling season.
None of us has a crystal ball to forecast the future, and tariffs, oil/fuel prices and other unknowns make predicting demand even harder.
However, ultimately, demand is decided by consumers.
And those consumers are solidly voting meat and poultry as their centre of plate choice.
– Anne-Marie Roerink is the founder and president of the 210 Analytics research firm, which specialises in quantitative and qualitative market research. Since 2006, she has produced the Power of Meat study, providing an annual update of US shopper habits regarding meat and poultry.