The poll of polls reckons Labour’s likely party vote is 32.3%, the Greens are on 10.3%, and Te Pāti Māori is on 2.2%.
It calculates National’s vote to be 29.5%, NZ First’s to be 13.7%, and Act’s to be 7%.
That would give the National-led bloc 63 seats compared with 57 for the Labour-led bloc.
This is comprised of 37 seats for National, 17 for NZ First, and nine for Act. Labour would be the largest party with 41 seats, 13 seats for the Greens, and three for Te Pāti Māori.
The NZ Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls uses data from public polls and other private or less frequent polls and inputs them into a computer model using polling data going back to 2014.
It uses this data to run 4000 election simulations, which are used to form probabilities of various election outcomes.