While Racing Bulls won’t compete for a title any time soon, Lawson’s role as its team leader is proving worth its weight in gold in the battle to beat Alpine to fifth in the constructors – what would be the best result in the team’s history.
Yet, with the mid-season summer break now underway, it’s the Kiwi who faces an uncertain future within Red Bull’s ranks.
Earlier this year, reports out of Spain claimed Red Bull-backed Formula Two driver Nikola Tsolov has been guaranteed a place at Racing Bulls next year, at Lawson’s expense. Even though the team was quick to tell the Herald that no decisions have been made for 2027, team principal Alan Permane has made it clear Tsolov will step into Racing Bulls eventually.
Despite Lawson’s success at Racing Bulls this year, there is an uncomfortable question to ask about his place. If Red Bull have truly drawn a line through Lawson’s name for one of its two seats, the clock is ticking for both parties on how long the relationship can continue before the next young talent gets a chance.
Fortunately, the Kiwi has made himself an almost irresistible proposition for a team to sign as soon as a seat is freed.
The only question would be where to next? While Lawson’s form would be worth a top side other than Red Bull giving him an opportunity, there are none free in the short term.
McLaren and Ferrari have their respective drivers on long-term deals. Mercedes’ current pair are each off-contract at the end of the season, and likely to be extended in spite of speculation for a swoop to snatch Max Verstappen from Red Bull through his exit clause.
That, then, highlights Lawson’s dilemma – of all the moves that would theoretically be available to him, none would be a forward step.
Alpine have shown they can compete this year, evidenced by Pierre Gasly’s podium finish in Monaco, but Lawson moving from the chaos of Red Bull to a team run by Flavio Briatore wouldn’t offer much stability.
Audi have made an impressive start to life after rebranding from Sauber, building their own power unit to the table, but are a few years away – at least – from being a frontrunner. What’s more, given his family ties to the brand, a move for Williams’ Carlos Sainz feels likely from the German giants.
Aston Martin could have a seat free with Fernando Alonso approaching free agency, and appear to have poached a Lawson ally in Jonathan Wheatley from Audi to be its team principal. However, considering Honda’s influence went against Lawson at Red Bull, something similar taking place at Aston Martin isn’t out of the question either.
Politics would also likely play a part in keeping Cadillac out of reach – after American efforts to move Colton Herta from IndyCar to Formula Two to gain Super Licence points – as well as Haas, whose links to Toyota are only getting stronger.
That leaves Williams. Sainz’s seemingly impending exit would free up a seat, and reunite Lawson with Alex Albon – after the pair were teammates for AF Corse in DTM. Team principal James Vowles is a known admirer of Lawson’s, and even attempted to sign the Kiwi on loan after sacking Logan Sargeant in 2024.
Joining Williams would be a huge gamble. After finishing fifth last year, the nine-time constructors champions have only gone backwards this season, and even started the year with a car 20kg overweight.
Under Vowles, Williams have shown they can improve from one year to the next, going from ninth in 2024 to fifth in 2025. But rebounding from this position is a big ask.
In all likelihood, staying at Racing Bulls wouldn’t be the end of the world. The team have not only shown they’re a great fit for Lawson on-track, but off it as well. No other side would have helped a driver rebuild in the way Racing Bulls did last year, and are being rewarded for it now.
The Tsolov question will have to be answered at some point, but unless there’s significant reason to make a change for 2027, a Lawson-Lindblad pairing would remain a solid duo, even if the Bulgarian teenager steps up into the team’s reserve driver role as a means of keeping them both on their toes.
Until racing resumes in Holland later this month, don’t be surprised if the ‘what now for Liam Lawson’ storylines rumble on.
Alex Powell is a sports journalist for the NZ Herald. He has been a sports journalist since 2016.