But that suggests about 60% of mortgages are now on lower rates and should have some more disposable income.
So, where is all the money going?
Well, spoiler alert. We’re saving more of it.
That’s not exactly a surprise.
A number of economists and commentators (including me) have been saying the high levels of job insecurity have prompted more people to put the gains from lower mortgage rates back into paying down the mortgage or saving.
We got data from Stats NZ on Thursday that added weight to such a theory.
New Zealand household saving increased from $149 million in the March 2025 quarter to $804m in the June 2025 quarter, as household net disposable income increased more than the increase in household spending, Stats NZ said.
Household net disposable income increased 1.9% to $62.8 billion in the June 2025 quarter, while household spending increased 0.8% to $62b.
It’s good that Kiwis are saving more – good for them personally and good for New Zealand in the longer term. I wrote a column a few weeks ago that said New Zealanders needed to save their way out of this mess.
Just to be clear, I was talking about the long-term fiscal mess we’re in … dealing with superannuation for an ageing population and things like that.
Unfortunately, in this mess of a short-term economic cycle, saving is not such a good thing.
Economics is such a messy subject.
In the short term, what the Reserve Bank and economists are waiting for is a consumer recovery to bring some vibrancy back to the economy.
There was some more good news on that front this week – the faintest of green shoots.
The second set of data, ANZ card spending figures for the year to September, showed overall spending was up 0.4% for the month (seasonally adjusted).
It was up 3.4% compared with the same time last year.
“Apart from the impact of lower petrol prices, more positive trends are emerging in card spending,” ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said.
“Most sectors have positive and accelerating annual growth – though it’s important to bear in mind that spend is a mix of volume and price movements, and inflation is up.”
ANZ data is obviously just a subset of the larger electronic card spending figures for all of New Zealand, which we’ll get from Stats NZ next week.
But as the country’s largest bank, it has access to a substantial subset.
So, it was heartening to see a pick-up in topline spending, however small.
More interesting, though, was the detailed breakdown of spending trends by category that ANZ provided.
They raised more questions than I have time to try to answer. But I’m going to highlight some trends and ponder them unscientifically.
The overall apparel category was down for the year and the month.
Within that, spending at clothing stores was down 1.7% for the year but spending at tailors was up by 3.6% for the year.
I’d love to say that we’re all getting our clothes fixed instead of buying new ones, but that sounds like something that might have happened in the 1930s.
It costs more to fix clothes than buy new ones these days.
By sub-category, the biggest drop in apparel spending was for infant and children’s footwear, down 4.5% year on year.
Intuitively, that seems a bit sad.
Spending at second-hand stores was up 10% year on year, so perhaps there is a bit of a depression-era correlation there.
Spending at bars was still down about 1% year on year, but surprisingly, so was spending at liquor stores. That was down 3.3% for the year.
Perhaps booze is becoming a luxury.
Spending at liquor stores is down. Photo / 123rf
We have been spending on stuff to keep us busy at home. Spending at hobbies and games shops was up 20% and spending at pet shops was up 18%.
“Birthday presents, like musical instruments, bicycles, sports goods and bookstores continue to have a tough time of it,” ANZ’s Zollner noted.
Spending at vape stores has declined 8.1% over the past 12 months, after years of exponential growth.
Probably a good thing, but I’m not sure that means fewer vapers. It could just be the ban on disposable vapes introduced in June might have changed the revenue picture. I think the disposables are relatively more expensive (over time) than the ones you keep and refill.
There are all sorts of clues to what Kiwis see as discretionary spending in the data.
Spending on costume hire was down 20% for the year and 16% the year before that.
I guess people are prepared to look a bit harder down the back of the wardrobe for something that will do the job.
We spent more overall on home maintenance and renovation. Spending fell 0.5% in September but was up 3% year on year.
Floors, windows and upholstery up 3%. Glass, paint and wallpaper are down almost 10%.
I can’t explain that one.
Overall hospitality spending was up 2.9% for the year, with a healthy 0.8% bump in the past month.
That looks promising.
So bars down (as mentioned) but restaurants and cafes were up 4% for the year and 1% for the month.
Fast-food consumption was up 5% for the year.
In all these stats, I can’t help but think eating out – whether it’s fish and chips, McDonald’s or a hipster coffee shop – seems like it is a good barometer for many ordinary working Kiwis.
If working people can’t afford to treat themselves to a takeaway on Friday or Saturday night, then the economy really has problems.
I’m taking the spending bump as a good sign.
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.
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