“We are confident in the future of our China market, but it is becoming more challenging.
“We are facing increased competition from locally grown G3, which is increasingly competing with more variable New Zealand G3 at the back end of our season.
“The emergence of Chinese G3, supported by strong quality, brands and routes to market, is something we need to respond to strongly.
“Our focus is on having high-quality fruit on shelves all year round to protect and build our brand, retain shelf space, strengthen relationships with our partners and maintain our category leadership.”
Brand protection
Te Brake said the focus was on delivering a solution that protected Zespri’s premium brand and grower returns in China, now and into the future.
“Our priority will always be maximising New Zealand grower returns and, as part of that, we need to give ourselves the ability to compete as strongly as possible, securing our retail, distribution and supply-chain relationships with the highest-quality fruit year-round.
“That fruit quality is critical. We can only command a premium when our quality consistently justifies it, and the clear feedback from our customers is that, at the moment, it does not, particularly at the back end of the season where quality is variable and where fruit is competing directly with Chinese G3.
“That means higher quality costs, slower sales and a risk to our brand premium over time if we don’t respond.
“Any solution also needs to be practical and sustainable.”
Zespri has been discussing two options with the industry.
The first is to continue competing from New Zealand, focusing on improving late-season quality, investing in post-harvest innovation and developing long-storing varieties.
The second is a tightly controlled China Supply procurement model.
“If we pursue China Supply, the model must create and protect value for New Zealand growers while giving Chinese partners a clear incentive to meet Zespri standards and support the brand long term,” Te Brake said.
“There are risks and opportunities with both options, and we will keep working through these openly with growers over the coming months.”
He said no decisions had been made and any proposal would proceed only with grower support through a producer vote.
Strong returns
With Zespri entering the latter stages of the 2026 season, its latest forecast expects strong returns for growers from a record crop of 225 million trays.
The August forecast shows average per-hectare returns are expected to exceed last year’s record returns for all categories except Green and Organic Green.
Te Brake said the forecast per-hectare returns reflect this season’s increased yields and the value secured across global markets despite a more challenging market environment.
Mike Murphy, head of communications and strategic projects at New Zealand Kiwifruit Growers Incorporated (NZKGI), said the higher yields resulted from good pollination, an increase in orchard hectares and favourable weather.
He also noted growers should prepare for the upcoming El Niño weather pattern, which was forecast to bring dry conditions interspersed with heavy rainfall.
“Preparedness for both irrigation and drainage systems will be front of mind.”
Te Brake said forecast per-tray returns remained within the indicative ranges provided by Zespri in June.
“Green and Organic per-tray returns reflect strong demand, lower Green volumes and the expectation of a shorter selling window this season,” he said.
“SunGold forecast returns reflect a more challenging market environment, with increased competition from summer fruit, pricing pressure across parts of Asia and a larger-than-expected crop.”
Te Brake said with more fruit to sell, the focus had been on managing the allocation of this year’s crop to help maximise grower returns.
“Quality remains our major focus as we move through the second half of the sales season, with our teams managing this through careful market allocation and inventory management, and by working closely with suppliers and customers to maximise value for growers.”