Mass deportations could jolt Bay Area economy and trigger job losses

Mass deportations proposed by the Trump administration could strip as much as $67 billion from the Bay Area economy, hitting key industries and worsening an already fragile job market, according to a new report released Wednesday.

That loss would amount to roughly up to 5.8% of the nine-county region’s gross domestic product, which totaled $1.15 trillion as of 2023, should the administration’s full deportation of undocumented immigrants occur, according to a report by the think tank Bay Area Council Economic Institute.

“The Bay Area could lose up to $67 billion in real GDP through direct labor losses and ripple effects across supplier networks and reduced household spending,” stated the report, which was prepared and written by Abby Raisz, a vice president of research with the Economic Institute.

Mass deportations would unleash long-term impacts on the region’s job market, the report warned.

“Layoffs, stagnant wages, and reduced opportunities would follow the removal of these workers,” the Economic Institute stated.

The Bay Area is home to multiple industries whose workers might include numerous undocumented people — sectors such as hotels, restaurants, construction, and building maintenance. While agriculture isn’t nearly as huge in the Bay Area as in the Central Valley, key industries such as wineries might employ undocumented workers.

The warning comes as the region is already shedding jobs, losing about 20,000 in 2025. The Bay Area has lost a net total of 137,200 tech jobs over the past three years, including 27,300 in 2025 alone, according to estimates from Beacon Economics.

Economists say the removal of hundreds of thousands of workers could ripple far beyond immigrant communities, affecting industries that depend heavily on labor and consumer spending.

Mass deportations would also carry long-term consequences for the region’s job market, the report found, leading to layoffs, stagnant wages and fewer opportunities across multiple sectors.

Home to more than 2.6 million immigrants — including an estimated 477,000 undocumented residents — the Bay Area could be particularly vulnerable to widespread deportations, the report noted.

Undocumented workers play a significant role in key industries, including administrative support, waste management, construction, hotels and restaurants.

“Undocumented workers represent 19% of the administrative support and waste management sector, which includes janitors, housekeepers, security and maintenance workers, 15% of accommodation and food services, and 13% of construction workers,” the report stated.

“There could be a big impact on the labor supply in the Bay Area,” Raisz said in an interview with this news organization.

Beyond the labor market, the report estimates that widespread deportations could jeopardize $8.4 billion in annual tax revenue, including federal, state and property taxes.

Undocumented workers earn an estimated $21.5 billion annually in the Bay Area, generating roughly $3.6 billion in federal income taxes, $1 billion in state income taxes and $446 million in local property taxes, according to the report.

After taxes, undocumented households retain about $16.5 billion in purchasing power, spending that supports local businesses and the broader regional economy.

President Donald Trump’s administration claims deportations can lift the economy in multiple ways.

“Through mass deportations, the Trump Administration is freeing up resources, revitalizing opportunity, and restoring safety,” the White House stated in a web post.

The Trump administration argues that the exit of undocumented workers can free up jobs for others.

“Between January and December 2025, 2 million native-born Americans have gained employment, while 662,000 foreign-born workers have lost employment,” the White House stated. “1.8 million native-born Americans have joined the labor force, while 881,000 foreign-born workers have left the labor force.”

The Economic Institute report found that many of the roles filled by undocumented workers are difficult to replace, raising concerns about labor shortages and economic disruption.

Multiple studies in recent years have raised similar warnings. A March 2025 report by Rice University’s Baker Institute for Economic Policy estimated that mass deportations could reduce U.S. GDP by 2.6% to 6.2% over the next decade.

“The Bay Area has a lot to lose,” Raisz said, pointing to industries that rely heavily on immigrant labor and the consumer spending that helps drive the region’s economy.