In the first poll since Eric Swalwell’s scandal-plagued exit from the California governor’s race, two Republicans — former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — lead the pack, while former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra is seeing a newfound surge in support, signaling a potential shake up in the crowded contest.
The survey, which was conducted April 14 and 15 by Emerson College Polling, decides the field of candidates appearing at next week’s Inside California Politics governor’s debate. The show’s parent company, Nexstar Media Group, has said it will use a 5% support threshold as the cutoff, meaning that the debate stage is likely to consist of Hilton (16.6%), Bianco (14.4%), billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer (14.1%), Becerra (10.4%), former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter (10.3%), and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (5.4%).
Swalwell, who led Emerson’s last poll in March, withdrew from the race on Sunday following allegations of sexual misconduct, which he has sharply denied. He resigned from his East Bay seat on Tuesday as a fifth woman came forward, alleging the embattled politician drugged and raped her in 2018.
“This is one potential answer to where will Eric Swalwell’s voters go,” Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego, said of the poll.
With seven other Democrats in the race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, many of the gubernatorial hopefuls are seeing renewed interest in their campaigns as they look to pick up Swalwell’s base, which polls have shown was made up of older, white, Bay Area liberals.
Thursday’s poll surveyed 1,000 likely primary voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a news release about the poll, that “Democrats now split their vote between Tom Steyer (20%), Xavier Becerra (19%), and Katie Porter (15%), with Becerra gaining 15 points among Democrats without Swalwell on the ballot.”
Hilton and Bianco continue to split the Republican vote — even following President Donald Trump’s endorsement of the former Fox News host — with 45% supporting Hilton and 40% supporting Bianco. 23% of voters still remain undecided just several weeks from when ballots are expected to arrive in mailboxes.
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (2.5%), former state Controller Betty Yee (1.4%) and state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond (1%) rounded out the bottom of the poll.
Becerra, who served as California’s attorney general from 2017 to 2021, saw the most dramatic change in the recent Emerson poll. His support in the last five polls had dropped from 5% to 3%, but amid Swalwell’s exit, he said in an April 14 social media post that his campaign had raised nearly $400,000 in the prior days, with the average donation size $42.
Kousser said that Becerra’s struggle to capture voters’ attention has been one of the “great mysteries of this race,” since he has a resume boasting decades of political experience having served in the House of Representatives, the California State Assembly and President Joe Biden’s cabinet. The poll, along with a bump on social media support that Becerra has been seeing, could be a “sign that he is a third potential candidate in the Democratic room,” the political science professor added.
Michael Bustamante, the senior advisor to Becerra’s campaign, said in a news release that “Becerra’s momentum is clear: strong increases in the polls, significant fundraising for small and medium-sized donors and a massive increase in social media interaction.”
But Kousser cautions that the race is still “very fluid.”
“Many Californians first realized there was a governor’s race when Eric Swalwell dropped out of it, so we are likely to see a lot of movement as Californians really for the first time focus their attention fully on this race,” he said. “We may see a lot of movement around Democrats because they are almost all in the same ideological space.”
Because of California’s filing deadline, Swalwell’s name will still remain on the ballot, and he is likely to still pick up some votes, political experts say. Camille Mumford, a spokesperson for Emerson College Polling, said they didn’t include his name on the most recent poll since it was being used a qualifier for the April 22 debate, however, the nonpartisan organization will include him in their final poll next month.
The primary for the California governor’s race will be held on June 2, with the top two vote-getters, regardless of political party, advancing to the November runoff.
Swalwell’s exit lessens the likelihood of the race’s top two Republicans shutting out the more divided Democrats in deep blue California where a GOP candidate hasn’t been elected governor — or for any other statewide office — since Arnold Schwarzenegger 20 years ago. That concern has raised pressure on the state’s leading Democrats including Newsom to endorse and help consolidate support around a Democratic candidate.
Thursday’s poll suggests a Republican top-two finish remains a possibility.