More exercise is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes, but new research involving nearly 88,000 adults found an unexpected twist: The group that may have the most to gain isn’t necessarily the youngest.

In the 2026 study, adults younger than 63 with lower levels of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity had more than twice the relative risk of developing type 2 diabetes compared with their more active peers. That association weakened with age—but because older adults faced greater underlying risk, the potential absolute benefit of physical activity actually increased.

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Why Age Changes the Exercise Equation

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Researchers from Leiden University Medical Center analyzed 87,975 UK Biobank participants without diabetes at baseline. Participants wore wrist accelerometers for seven days, and researchers followed them for a median 7.7 years. During that period, 2,140 developed type 2 diabetes.

The lower-activity group recorded a median 121 minutes of moderate-to-vigorous activity per week, compared with 409 minutes in the higher group. Among adults 63 and older, lower activity was associated with a 65% higher relative risk.

But relative risk tells only part of the story.

“Our findings underscore why it is important to look at both relative and absolute risk when considering the public health impact of physical activity,” study author Qiuyu Feng said in the European Association for the Study of Diabetes announcement. “Relative risk alone does not capture how much physical activity could help reduce the number of cases in different population groups.”

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The Clock May Matter Less Than the Total

Researchers also explored when people exercised. Later-day activity—from roughly 1 p.m. to midnight—was associated with about a 10% lower relative risk than earlier activity. But the published analysis found “no clear effect modification” for exercise timing across the groups studied.

That makes how much you move the more useful takeaway—not chasing a supposedly perfect workout hour.

The lower-activity group’s 121-minute median also fell below the current U.S. recommendation. The CDC recommends adults get at least 150 minutes of moderate-intensity activity weekly, noting that “some physical activity is better than none.”

The study remains observational, so it cannot prove that increasing exercise caused the lower diabetes risk. The UK Biobank population is also generally healthier and wealthier than the broader population, limiting how widely the results can be generalized.

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This story was originally published by Men’s Journal on Sep 19, 2026, where it first appeared in the Health section. Add Men’s Journal as a Preferred Source by clicking here.